Analysis of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on influenza during the Coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic by time-series forecasting.
BMC Infect Dis
; 23(1): 717, 2023 Oct 24.
Article
in En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37875817
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in South Korea during the 2019-2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. The social distancing measures, as effective non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), adopted to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 might have influenced influenza activity. We evaluated IFV(influenza virus) activity during the COVID-19 pandemic and the effect of NPI intensity on influenza transmission.METHODS:
IFV activity and epidemic duration during COVID-19 pandemic were predicted under a counterfactual scenario with no NPIs against COVID-19. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model was used to quantify the effects of NPIs on the transmission of influenza virus. Influenza-like illness/1000 outpatients and IFV positivity rate from the 2011-2012 to 2021-2022 seasons were used in this study.RESULTS:
Comparison of the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasonal influenza activities with those in 2013-2019 showed that COVID-19 outbreaks and associated NPIs such as face mask use, school closures, and travel restrictions reduced the influenza incidence by 91%. Without NPIs against COVID-19, the rates of influenza-like illness and IFV positivity would have been high during the influenza epidemic season, as in previous seasons. NPI intensity decreased the transmission of influenza; the magnitude of the reduction increased as the intensity of social-distancing measures increased (weak social distancing; step-by-step daily recovery 58.10%, strong social distancing; special quarantinemeasures:
95.12%).CONCLUSIONS:
Our results suggest that NPIs and personal hygiene can be used to suppress influenza transmission. NPIs against COVID-19 may be useful strategies for the prevention and control of influenza epidemics.Key words
Full text:
1
Collection:
01-internacional
Health context:
1_ASSA2030
/
2_ODS3
/
4_TD
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Virus Diseases
/
Influenza, Human
/
COVID-19
Limits:
Humans
Language:
En
Journal:
BMC Infect Dis
Year:
2023
Document type:
Article