Air pollution control and carbon reduction policies: Assessing effectiveness in alleviating PM2.5-associated mortality in China.

ABSTRACT

To confront the challenges posed by air pollution and climate change, China has undertaken significant initiatives to develop strategies that address both issues concurrently. However, the health benefits of these initiatives have not been clearly articulated. In this study, the dynamic changes in health impacts under air pollution and carbon reduction actions in China are evaluated by employing the latest concentration-response models and projected PM2.5 concentrations under future scenarios. From 2020 to 2060, the enforcement of clean air and climate mitigation policies is expected to increase the percentage of the population living with PM2.5 concentrations meeting the 10 µg/m3 standard by 79 %. Without the implementation of relevant mitigation measures, PM2.5-associated deaths are projected to double due to an aging population. In comparison to the 2060 reference scenario, the joint implementation of clean air and carbon neutrality measures is expected to reduce nationwide PM2.5-associated mortality by 62 %, equivalent to 2.15 (95 % CI 1.80-2.48) million deaths. Stringent pollution controls are crucial for reducing PM2.5-associated deaths before 2030, after which carbon neutrality actions become increasingly significant from 2030 to 2060. The challenges of mitigating future PM2.5-associated deaths vary greatly across regions, showing a critical response to pollution control and carbon reduction. The research proves the effectiveness of China's future air pollution control and carbon reduction policies in mitigating PM2.5-associated deaths.