New Model and Public Online Prediction Platform for Risk Stratification of Vocal Cord Leukoplakia.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To extract texture features from vocal cord leukoplakia (VCL) images and establish a VCL risk stratification prediction model using machine learning (ML) techniques. METHODS: A total of 462 patients with pathologically confirmed VCL were retrospectively collected and divided into low-risk and high-risk groups. We use a 5-fold cross validation method to ensure the generalization ability of the model built using the included dataset and avoid overfitting. Totally 504 texture features were extracted from each laryngoscope image. After feature selection, 10 ML classifiers were utilized to construct the model. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was employed for feature analysis. To evaluate the model, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were utilized. In addition, the model was transformed into an online application for public use and further tested in an independent dataset with 52 cases of VCL. RESULTS: A total of 12 features were finally selected, random forest (RF) achieved the best model performance, the mean accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of the 5-fold cross validation were 92.2 ± 4.1%, 95.6 ± 4.0%, 85.8 ± 5.8%, and 90.7 ± 4.9%, respectively. The result is much higher than the clinicians (AUC between 63.1% and 75.2%). The SHAP algorithm ranks the importance of 12 texture features to the model. The test results of the additional independent datasets were 92.3%, 95.7%, 90.0%, and 93.3%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The proposed VCL risk stratification prediction model, which has been developed into a public online prediction platform, may be applied in practical clinical work. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE 3 Laryngoscope, 2024.