Hydrological dynamics in the China-Mongolia arid region: An integrated analysis of precipitation recycling and water vapor conversion.

ABSTRACT

This study examines the atmospheric water cycle dynamics in the China-Mongolia Arid Region (CMAR), a region significantly affected by aridity. By employing a combination of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, ERA5 reanalysis data, and the Dynamic Recycling Model (DRM), we investigate the spatial and temporal variations in the Precipitation Recycling Ratio (PRR) and Precipitable Water Conversion Rate (PWCR) over a forty-year period (1979-2021). Our findings reveal that both PRR and PWCR are generally higher but decreasing in most subregions of CMAR, suggesting a notable contribution of local moisture to precipitation. We also identify an increasing trend in PRR across the northwestern subregions and a decreasing trend in other areas. Similarly, PWCR exhibits an increasing trend in the northwestern and southern subregions, while decreasing elsewhere, implying a decline in water vapor conversion and recycling efficiency. Furthermore, our EOF analysis uncovers distinct spatial patterns, with dominant modes accounting for significant variances in PRR and PWCR, correlating with local variations in atmospheric moisture and advective changes. These results underscore the complex interplay between regional topography, atmospheric dynamics, and the hydrological cycle in CMAR. The insights from this study are vital for formulating effective water management strategies and adapting to climate change impacts in arid regions, holding broad implications for environmental science, climate studies, and sustainable resource management. Our findings reveal distinct spatial patterns and contrasting trends in precipitation recycling and water vapor conversion across the subregions of CMAR. This heterogeneity underscores the importance of conducting analyses at finer spatial scales to avoid contradictory conclusions that can arise from topographic influences when treating CMAR as a single unit. Future studies should focus on smaller subregions to accurately capture the intricacies of the water cycle in this topographically complex arid region.