Assessing the predictive efficacy of noninvasive liver fibrosis indices and portal vein diameter in predicting esophageal variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study is to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of noninvasive serum liver fibrosis markers and portal vein diameter (PVD) in predicting the occurrence of esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB) in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: A cohort comprising 102 individuals diagnosed with cirrhosis was divided into two groups the P group (without EVB) and the PE group (with EVB). We conducted a comprehensive analysis comparing various noninvasive serum liver fibrosis indices, the Child-Pugh classification, ratios of aspartate aminotransferase to alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index, fibrosis index based on four factors (FIB-4), PVD, and spleen thickness (SPT) between these groups. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for variables showing significant differences between the two groups, with subsequent calculation of the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for each variable. RESULTS: Significant distinctions were noted in the serum liver fibrosis markers between the P and PE groups, encompassing hyaluronic acid (HA), type III procollagen (PC-III), type IV collagen (IV-C), PVD, SPT, and FIB-4 (p < 0.05), as evidenced by univariate analysis findings. The respective AUROC values for these markers were 0.653, 0.706, 0.710, 0.730, 0.660, and 0.633. Additionally, upon integration with PVD, SPT, and FIB4, the AUROC values for liver fibrosis markers surged to 0.793, 0.763, and 0.706 correspondingly, highlighting the enhanced diagnostic potential. CONCLUSION: The integration of noninvasive liver fibrosis indices and PVD showcased remarkable diagnostic potential in EVB, underscoring its clinical relevance in predicting hemorrhagic events.