Climatic variables associated with dengue incidence in a city of the Western Brazilian Amazon region
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
; Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop;52: e20180429, 2019. tab, graf
Article
em En
| LILACS
| ID: biblio-985154
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
Abstract INTRODUCTION:
This study aimed to examine the impact of climate variability on the incidence of dengue fever in the city of Rio Branco, Brazil.METHODS:
The association between the monthly incidence of dengue fever and climate variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, and the Acre River level was evaluated, using generalized autoregressive moving average models with negative binomial distribution. Multiple no-lag, 1-month lag, and 2-month lag models were tested.RESULTS:
The no-lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was associated with the monthly averages of the Acre River level (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.17), compensated temperature (IRR 1.54; 95% CI 1.22-1.95), and maximum temperature (IRR 0.68; 95% CI 0.58-0.81). The 1-month lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was predicted by the monthly averages of total precipitation (IRR 1.21; 95% CI 1.06-1.39), minimum temperature (IRR 1.54; 95% CI 1.24-1.91), compensated relative humidity (IRR 0.90; 95% CI 0.82-0.99), and maximum temperature (IRR 0.76; 95% CI 0.59-0.97). The 2-month lag model showed that the incidence of dengue fever was predicted by the number of days with precipitation (IRR 1.03; 95% CI 1.00-1.06) and maximum temperature (IRR 1.23; 95% CI 1.05-1.44).CONCLUSIONS:
Considering the impact of global climate change on the region, these findings can help to predict trends in dengue fever incidence.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
3_ND
Base de dados:
LILACS
Assunto principal:
Dengue
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Aged80
/
Child
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Child, preschool
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Female
/
Humans
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Infant
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Brasil
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop
Ano de publicação:
2019
Tipo de documento:
Article