Análisis comparado de la dinámica epidemiológica de la Influenza A (H1N1) en Chile / Comparative analysis of A(H1N1) influenza epidemiological dynamics in Chile
Rev. méd. Chile
; 138(9): 1186-1196, sept. 2010. ilus, tab
Article
em Es
| LILACS
| ID: lil-572028
Biblioteca responsável:
CL1.1
ABSTRACT
In order to increase awareness of the pandemic and to streamline control measures before any new outbreak of influenza we analyze the behavior of the cases of Chile and from 9 countries with more cases in 2009. Reproductive numbers, doubling times and estimations of susceptible and infected at the end of the epidemic were estimated. Epidemic curves to the situation in Chile under different initial conditions were adjusted and simulations for different reproductive numbers and notification scenarios were performed. The reproductive numbers varied between 1.37 and 1.82, with doubling times of between 5 and 8 days at 30 days of the epidemic. According to this, the proportions of infected by the end of the epidemic vary between 58 percent and 78.5 percent. The transmission coefficient ranged from 2 to 132 new cases per day x 10(6) susceptible individuals. The adjustments showed that the onset of the epidemic probably had more cases than reported. All estimates suggest that there must have been a large number of susceptible and therefore can not be explained as small outbreaks in 2009. A large number of susceptible individuals may still exist who are at risk from a possible new outbreak.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
2_ODS3
Base de dados:
LILACS
Assunto principal:
Vigilância da População
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Influenza Humana
/
Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H1N1
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Newborn
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Chile
Idioma:
Es
Revista:
Rev. méd. Chile
Ano de publicação:
2010
Tipo de documento:
Article