Yellow fever impact on brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Argentina: a metamodelling approach based on population viability analysis and epidemiological dynamics
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
; 110(7): 865-876, Nov. 2015. tab, graf
Article
em En
| LILACS
| ID: lil-764591
Biblioteca responsável:
BR1.1
ABSTRACT
In South America, yellow fever (YF) is an established infectious disease that has been identified outside of its traditional endemic areas, affecting human and nonhuman primate (NHP) populations. In the epidemics that occurred in Argentina between 2007-2009, several outbreaks affecting humans and howler monkeys (Alouatta spp) were reported, highlighting the importance of this disease in the context of conservation medicine and public health policies. Considering the lack of information about YF dynamics in New World NHP, our main goal was to apply modelling tools to better understand YF transmission dynamics among endangered brown howler monkey (Alouatta guariba clamitans) populations in northeastern Argentina. Two complementary modelling tools were used to evaluate brown howler population dynamics in the presence of the disease Vortex, a stochastic demographic simulation model, and Outbreak, a stochastic disease epidemiology simulation. The baseline model of YF disease epidemiology predicted a very high probability of population decline over the next 100 years. We believe the modelling approach discussed here is a reasonable description of the disease and its effects on the howler monkey population and can be useful to support evidence-based decision-making to guide actions at a regional level.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
1_ASSA2030
/
2_ODS3
Base de dados:
LILACS
Assunto principal:
Febre Amarela
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Alouatta
/
Doenças dos Macacos
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Argentina
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz
Ano de publicação:
2015
Tipo de documento:
Article