[Course of chronic renal failure epidemiology and prediction of maintenance dialysis needs in France]. / Evolution de l'épidémiologie de l'insuffisance rénale chronique et prévision des besoins en dialyse de suppléance en France.

Epidemiology of diseases leading to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in France has greatly changed over the past decades, with the disappearance of type 1 primary membranoproliferative glomerulonephritis, and the increased incidence of both vascular and diabetic nephropathies. The incidence of ESRD is continuously growing, by about 4% per year, with a present rate of more than 100 new patients per million population (pmp) per year. The rise in incidence is mainly observed in older subjects. As a consequence, one may predict a relentless increase in the next years, in parallel with the relentless ageing of the population. The number of ESRD patients on maintenance dialysis is also growing, by nearly 4% per year. The present prevalence is 433 pmp in the Ile de France area, ranging from 268 pmp in subjects aged 15-59 years, to as high as 980 pmp in the population aged 60 years or more. Whereas the number of in-center treated patients has remained quite stable over the past five years, the total number and proportion of out-center treated patients is continuously increasing, as expected, thanks to the development of self-care hemodialysis and of peritoneal dialysis. These data may help predict logistic requirements for maintenance dialysis in the next years.