A model of lineage-1 and lineage-2 rinderpest virus transmission in pastoral areas of East Africa.
Prev Vet Med
; 69(3-4): 245-63, 2005 Jul 12.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-15907573
ABSTRACT
The development of a stochastic, state-transition model of rinderpest transmission dynamics is described using parameter estimates obtained from both laboratory and participatory research. Using serological data, the basic reproduction numbers for lineage-1 rinderpest virus in southern Sudan and for lineage-2 rinderpest virus in Somali livestock were estimated as 4.4 and between 1.2 and 1.9, respectively. The model predictions for the inter-epidemic period in Sudan and Somalia (1.2 and 4.2 years, respectively) were in agreement with analysis of livestock-owner reports (1-2 years and 5 years, respectively).
Buscar no Google
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
2_ODS3
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Peste Bovina
/
Vírus da Peste Bovina
/
Doenças dos Bovinos
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Africa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Prev Vet Med
Ano de publicação:
2005
Tipo de documento:
Article