[Time-series analysis on effect of air pollution on stroke mortality in Tianjin, China].

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke mortality in Tianjin, China, and to provide basis for stroke control and prevention. METHODS: Total data of mortality surveillance were collected by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Meteorological data and atmospheric pollution data were from Tianjin Meteorological Bureau and Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Center, respectively. Generalized additive Poisson regression model was used in time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and stroke mortality in Tianjin. Single-pollutant analysis and multi-pollutant analysis were performed after adjustment for confounding factors such as meteorological factors, long-term trend of death, "days of the week" effect and population. RESULTS: The crude death rates of stroke in Tianjin were from 136.67 in 2001 to 160.01/100000 in 2009, with an escalating trend (P = 0.000), while the standardized mortality ratios of stroke in Tianjin were from 138.36 to 99.14/100000, with a declining trend (P = 0.000). An increase of 10 µg/m³ in daily average concentrations of atmospheric SO2, NO2 and PM10 led to 1.0105 (95%CI 1.0060 ∼ 1.0153), 1.0197 (95%CI 1.0149 ∼ 1.0246) and 1.0064 (95%CI 1.0052 ∼ 1.0077), respectively, in relative risks of stroke mortality. SO2 effect peaked after 1-day exposure, while NO2 and PM10 effects did within 1 day. CONCLUSION: Air pollution in Tianjin may increase the risk of stroke mortality in the population and induce acute onset of stroke. It is necessary to carry out air pollution control and allocate health resources rationally to reduce the hazard of stroke mortality.