A rainfall- and temperature-driven abundance model for Aedes albopictus populations.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
; 10(5): 1698-719, 2013 Apr 26.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-23624579
ABSTRACT
The mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera Culicidae) is an invasive species which has colonized Southern Europe in the last two decades. As it is a competent vector for several arboviruses, its spread is of increasing public health concern, and there is a need for appropriate monitoring tools. In this paper, we have developed a modelling approach to predict mosquito abundance over time, and identify the main determinants of mosquito population dynamics. The model is temperature- and rainfall-driven, takes into account egg diapause during unfavourable periods, and was used to model the population dynamics of Ae. albopictus in the French Riviera since 2008. Entomological collections of egg stage from six locations in Nice conurbation were used for model validation. We performed a sensitivity analysis to identify the key parameters of the mosquito population dynamics. Results showed that the model correctly predicted entomological field data (Pearson r correlation coefficient values range from 0.73 to 0.93). The model's main control points were related to adult's mortality rates, the carrying capacity in pupae of the environment, and the beginning of the unfavourable period. The proposed model can be efficiently used as a tool to predict Ae. albopictus population dynamics, and to assess the efficiency of different control strategies.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
2_ODS3
/
3_ND
/
4_TD
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Controle de Insetos
/
Aedes
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Evaluation_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Int J Environ Res Public Health
Ano de publicação:
2013
Tipo de documento:
Article