A Comparison of Disease Burden Between Twins and Control Pairs in Medicare: Quantification of Heredity's Role in Human Health.

To quantify heredity's effects on the burden of illness in the Medicare population, this study linked information between participants in a research twin registry to a comprehensive set of Medicare claims. To calculate disease categories, the authors used the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Hierarchical Conditions Categories (HCC) model that was developed to risk adjust Medicare's capitation payments to private health care plans based on the health expenditure risk of their enrollees. Using the Medicare database, 2 sets of unrelated but demographically matched control pairs (MCPs) were generated, one specific for the monozygotic twin population and the second specific for the dizygotic twin population. The concordance and correlation rates of the 70 HCC categories for the 2 twin populations, in comparison to their corresponding MCP, was then calculated using Medicare claims data from 1991 through 2011. When indicated, HCCs for which there was a statistically significant difference between the twin and corresponding MCP control group were analyzed by calculating concordance and correlation rates of the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes that compose the HCC. Findings reveal that monozygotic twins share 6.5% more HCC disease categories than their MCP while dizygotic twins share 3.8% more HCC disease categories than their MCP. Atrial fibrillation is a highly heritable disease category, a finding consistent with prior literature describing the heritability of the cardiac arrhythmias. These findings are consistent with qualitative assessments of heredity's role found in previous models of population health, and provide both novel methods and quantitative evidence to support future model development.