[Study of a preoperative deep venous thrombosis predictor score for patients with fresh lower extremity fractures].

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To establish a preoperative deep venous thrombosis predictor score for patients with fresh lower extremity fractures by statistical analysis. METHODS: From January 2011 to December 2012, 1 705 patients with fresh lower extremity fractures were admitted to department of orthopaedic trauma, Beijing Jishuitan Hospital. They were randomly divided into two groups, the group 1 (n = 879) was used to screen risk factors and derived a predictive models based on logistic regression, the group 2 (n = 826) validated the models. RESULTS: Among the patients, there were 1 106 male and 599 female patients, with an average age of (50 ± 18) years.Variables related to preoperative deep venous thrombosis were age, length of time before surgery, cause of injury, low/high-energy injury, location of injury, history of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and D-Dimer. The scores based on OR were age ≤ 35 years 1 point, > 35- < 65 years 4 points, ≥ 65 years 6 points; length of time before surgery, < 8 days1 point, ≥ 8 days2 points;low-energy injury1 point, high energy injury3 points;location of injury, foot and ankle1 point, calf3 points, around the knee 5 points, femoral diaphysis and proximal femur7 points, pelvis and acetabulum4 points, ≥ 2 sites6 point;history of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, yes2 points, no1 point. D-Dimer < 600 µg/L1 point, ≥ 600 µg/L3 points. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.79, critical point 15.5 points, sensitivity was 77.00%, specificity was 68.17%. CONCLUSION: The score can predict the preoperative deep venous thrombosis for patients with fresh lower extremity fractures, but limited.