Prediction of future hepatocellular carcinoma incidence in moderate to heavy alcohol drinkers with the FIB-4 liver fibrosis index.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Although heavy alcoholics are at heightened risk for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), there are no guidelines that recommend HCC screening for heavy alcoholics. This study investigated FIB-4, a noninvasive and easily applicable liver fibrosis index, as a risk factor for HCC incidence among alcohol drinkers without viral hepatitis. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 6661 generally healthy adults who were 30 years old or older, did not have chronic viral hepatitis, and visited Seoul National University Hospital for a general, routine health evaluation. The future HCC incidence was determined from National Health Insurance medical service claims data (median follow-up, 6.2 years). RESULTS: With adjustments for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, and alcohol, compared with subjects with FIB-4 values less 1.00, subjects with FIB-4 values greater than or equal to 1.75 and less than 2.10 and subjects with FIB-4 values greater than or equal to 2.10 had adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of 5.18 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-24.00) and 13.63 (95% CI, 3.77-49.33), respectively, for HCC incidence. This was heightened in subjects who drank more 30 g of alcohol per day the aHRs were 8.39 (95% CI, 1.28-54.87) and 16.58 (95% CI, 3.87-71.04), respectively. FIB-4 was shown to have a higher predictive value for HCC incidence than ultrasonographically detected liver cirrhosis (C-index, 0.665 vs 0.527; P = .044). CONCLUSIONS: High FIB-4 is a risk factor with a high predictive value for HCC incidence, especially among moderate to heavy alcoholics (>30 g/d). FIB-4 is a readily available and probably cost-effective clinical tool with potential value for identifying subpopulations of alcoholics at particularly high risk who would benefit from regular HCC screening. Further investigations are warranted to validate our results; nonetheless, our study suggests that FIB-4 may be useful in HCC screening among alcoholics.