A critical review of the physics and statistics of condoms and their role in individual versus societal survival of the AIDS epidemic.

ABSTRACT

PIP: The failure rate for condoms in terms of failing to protect one from infection from HIV transmission can now be accurately estimated based on physics and statistics. The risk of HIV infection is much higher than the risk of pregnancy in the context of protecting one in a life-time relationship. This is because pregnancy can only occur a few days a month, so condom failure on infertile days does not get taken into account when calculating failure rates. Even if the condom is used in an optimum way so that the only failure rate is that of manufacturing tolerance, there is not enough protection for an individual over an entire life time. However, if everyone used a condom, every time they had sex, the epidemic could be stopped. Currently for every person who is HIV-infected, 4 to 12 more people will contract the virus. In order for the epidemic to stop, this number must be below 1. The best possible way to do this is to encourage the government to monitor more strictly the production tolerances of condoms. To prove the point, effectiveness rates for pregnancy are first discussed and then cross applied to HIV-protection. Through an explanation of inspection and an application of probability it is shown that imperfections are currently being missed. Currently only a small percentage of condoms are tested and an extrapolation of the condition of a lot is then made. Also a failure rate of 0.4% is allowed per batch. In addition, the tests are used are only to find holes several orders of magnitude bigger than necessary for the transmission of the HIV virus. In the context of the discussion, on the role of condoms in the prevention of AIDS, a model describing the choice of sexual partners to avoid AIDS is presented.