Heterogeneity in the spread and control of infectious disease: consequences for the elimination of canine rabies.
Sci Rep
; 5: 18232, 2015 Dec 15.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-26667267
ABSTRACT
Understanding the factors influencing vaccination campaign effectiveness is vital in designing efficient disease elimination programmes. We investigated the importance of spatial heterogeneity in vaccination coverage and human-mediated dog movements for the elimination of endemic canine rabies by mass dog vaccination in Region VI of the Philippines (Western Visayas). Household survey data was used to parameterise a spatially-explicit rabies transmission model with realistic dog movement and vaccination coverage scenarios, assuming a basic reproduction number for rabies drawn from the literature. This showed that heterogeneous vaccination reduces elimination prospects relative to homogeneous vaccination at the same overall level. Had the three vaccination campaigns completed in Region VI in 2010-2012 been homogeneous, they would have eliminated rabies with high probability. However, given the observed heterogeneity, three further campaigns may be required to achieve elimination with probability 0.95. We recommend that heterogeneity be reduced in future campaigns through targeted efforts in low coverage areas, even at the expense of reduced coverage in previously high coverage areas. Reported human-mediated dog movements did not reduce elimination probability, so expending limited resources on restricting dog movements is unnecessary in this endemic setting. Enhanced surveillance will be necessary post-elimination, however, given the reintroduction risk from long-distance dog movements.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
1_ASSA2030
/
2_ODS3
/
3_ND
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Raiva
/
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis
/
Doenças Transmissíveis
/
Doenças do Cão
/
Erradicação de Doenças
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Aspecto:
Determinantes_sociais_saude
Limite:
Animals
/
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Asia
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Sci Rep
Ano de publicação:
2015
Tipo de documento:
Article