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Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.
Skelsey, Peter; Cooke, David E L; Lynott, James S; Lees, Alison K.
Afiliação
  • Skelsey P; The James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, UK. peter.skelsey@hutton.ac.uk.
  • Cooke DE; The James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, UK.
  • Lynott JS; The James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, UK.
  • Lees AK; The James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, UK.
Glob Chang Biol ; 22(11): 3724-3738, 2016 11.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27214030
ABSTRACT
The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mudança Climática / Solanum tuberosum / Phytophthora infestans Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies País/Região como assunto: Europa Idioma: En Revista: Glob Chang Biol Ano de publicação: 2016 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mudança Climática / Solanum tuberosum / Phytophthora infestans Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies País/Região como assunto: Europa Idioma: En Revista: Glob Chang Biol Ano de publicação: 2016 Tipo de documento: Article