Long-Term Prediction of the Demand of Colonoscopies Generated by a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program.
PLoS One
; 11(10): e0164666, 2016.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-27732635
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program.METHODS:
A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50-69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results. The model was mainly fed using data from the first and second rounds of a Spanish program (2010-2013). Data on post-polypectomy surveillance results were obtained from the literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed on the effect of participation, FIT positivity, and adherence to surveillance colonoscopies. The main outcome variables were the number of colonoscopies after a positive FIT, surveillance colonoscopies, and the overall number of colonoscopies.RESULTS:
An average yearly number of 1,200 colonoscopies after a positive FIT were predicted per 100,000 inhabitants with a slight increase to 1,400 at the end of the 20-year period. Surveillance colonoscopies increased to an average of 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants in the long-term, showing certain stabilization in the last years of the 20-year simulation horizon. The results were highly sensitive to FIT positivity.CONCLUSIONS:
Implementing a population-based CRC screening program will increase the demand for colonoscopies, which is expected to double in 20 years, mainly due to an increase in surveillance colonoscopies.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
2_ODS3
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias Colorretais
/
Colonoscopia
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Aged
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Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Ano de publicação:
2016
Tipo de documento:
Article