Modeling HIV-HCV coinfection epidemiology in the direct-acting antiviral era: the road to elimination.
BMC Med
; 15(1): 217, 2017 12 18.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29249202
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
HCV treatment uptake has drastically increased in HIV-HCV coinfected patients in France since direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment approval, resulting in HCV cure in 63% of all HIV-HCV patients by the end of 2015. We investigated the impact of scaling-up DAA on HCV prevalence in the whole HIV population and in various risk groups over the next 10 years in France using a transmission dynamic compartmental model.METHODS:
The model was based on epidemiological data from the French Dat'AIDS cohort. Eight risk groups were considered, including high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) men who have sex with men (MSM) and male/female heterosexuals, intra-venous drug users, or patients from other risk groups. The model was calibrated on prevalence and incidence data observed in the cohort between 2012 and 2015.RESULTS:
On January 1, 2016, 156,811 patients were registered as infected with HIV in France (24,900 undiagnosed patients) of whom 7938 (5.1%) had detectable HCV-RNA (722 undiagnosed patients). Assuming a treatment coverage (TC) rate of 30%/year (i.e., the observed rate in 2015), model projections showed that HCV prevalence among HIV patients is expected to drop to 0.81% in 2026. Sub-analyses showed a similar decrease of HIV-HCV prevalence in most risk groups, including LR MSM. Due to higher infection and reinfection rates, predicted prevalence in HR MSM remained stable from 6.96% in 2016 to 6.34% in 2026. Increasing annual TC rate in HR MSM to 50/70% would decrease HCV prevalence in this group to 2.35/1.25% in 2026. With a 30% TC rate, undiagnosed patients would account for 34% of HCV infections in 2026.CONCLUSIONS:
Our model suggests that DAA could nearly eliminate coinfection in France within 10 years for most risk groups, including LR MSM. Elimination in HR MSM will require increased TC.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
2_ODS3
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecções por HIV
/
Hepatite C
/
Coinfecção
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prevalence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
/
Screening_studies
Limite:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Med
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article