Early Changes in Serial CBCT-Measured Parotid Gland Biomarkers Predict Chronic Xerostomia After Head and Neck Radiation Therapy.

PURPOSE: To determine whether serial cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images taken during head and neck radiation therapy (HNR) can improve chronic xerostomia prediction. METHODS AND MATERIALS: In a retrospective analysis, parotid glands (PGs) were delineated on daily kV CBCT images using deformable image registration for 119 HNR patients (60 or 70 Gy in 2 Gy fractions over 6 or 7 weeks). Deformable image registration accuracy for a subset of deformed contours was quantified using the Dice similarity coefficient and mean distance to agreement in comparison with manually drawn contours. Average weekly changes in CBCT-measured mean Hounsfield unit intensity and volume were calculated for each PG relative to week 1. Dose-volume histogram statistics were extracted from each plan, and interactions among dose, volume, and intensity were investigated. Univariable analysis and penalized logistic regression were used to analyze association with observer-rated xerostomia at 1 year after HNR. Models including CBCT delta imaging features were compared with clinical and dose-volume histogram-only models using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for grade ≥1 and grade ≥2 xerostomia prediction. RESULTS: All patients experienced end-treatment PG volume reduction with mean (range) ipsilateral and contralateral PG shrinkage of 19.6% (0.9%-58.4%) and 17.7% (4.4%-56.3%), respectively. Midtreatment volume change was highly correlated with mean PG dose (r = -0.318, P < 1e-6). Incidence of grade ≥1 and grade ≥2 xerostomia was 65% and 16%, respectively. For grade ≥1 xerostomia prediction, the delta-imaging model had an AUC of 0.719 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.603-0.830), compared with 0.709 (95% CI, 0.603-0.815) for the dose/clinical model. For grade ≥2 xerostomia prediction, the dose/clinical model had an AUC of 0.692 (95% CI, 0.615-0.770), and the addition of contralateral PG changes modestly improved predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.776 (0.643-0.912). CONCLUSIONS: The rate of CBCT-measured PG image feature changes improves prediction over dose alone for chronic xerostomia prediction. Analysis of CBCT images acquired for treatment positioning may provide an inexpensive monitoring system to support toxicity-reducing adaptive radiation therapy.