Predictive parameters for the clinical course of Crohn's disease: development of a simple and reliable risk model.

PURPOSE: The aim of our study was to identify clinical parameters in recently diagnosed Crohn's disease (CD) patients for prediction of their disease course. METHODS: EPIC (Early Predictive parameters of Immunosuppressive therapy in Crohn's disease) is a prospective, observational study in 341 patients with a recent CD diagnosis (≤ 6 months), and naïve to immunosuppressants (IS) and anti-tumor necrosis factor α (TNF) agents. Patient characteristics were documented up to 2 years. In line with national and international guidelines, a complicated disease course was defined as need for immunosuppressants and/or anti-TNF agents, and CD-related hospitalization with or without immunosuppressants and/or anti-TNF agents. RESULTS: A total of 212 CD patients were analyzed of whom 57 (27%) had an uncomplicated disease within 24 months, while 155 (73%) had a complicated disease course: need for IS and/or anti-TNF agents (N = 115), CD-related hospitalization with or without IS/anti-TNF agents (N = 40). Identified risk predictors for a complicated disease were as follows: age at onset < 40 years (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.2-4.5), anemia (OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.1-4.2), and treatment with systemic corticosteroids at first flare (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.7). These three parameters were used to develop a risk model allowing prediction of the future disease course. CONCLUSION: Our three-parameter model enables an assessment of each CD patient's risk to develop a complicated disease course. Due to the easy accessibility of these parameters, this model can be utilized in daily clinical care to assist selecting the initial treatment for each individual patient.