Which curve provides the best explanation of the growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile?
Rev Lat Am Enfermagem
; 28: e3346, 2020.
Article
em En, Pt, Es
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32609283
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
to explore the best type of curve or trend model that could explain the epidemiological behavior of the infection by COVID-19 and derive the possible causes that contribute to explain the corresponding model and the health implications that can be inferred.METHOD:
data were collected from the COVID-19 reports of the Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Chile. Curve adjustment studies were developed with the data in four different models quadratic, exponential, simple exponential smoothing, and double exponential smoothing. The significance level used was α≤0.05.RESULTS:
the curve that best fits the evolution of the accumulated confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Chile is the doubly-smoothed exponential curve.CONCLUSION:
the number of infected patients will continue to increase. Chile needs to remain vigilant and adjust the strategies around the prevention and control measures. The behavior of the population plays a fundamental role. We suggest not relaxing restrictions and further improving epidemiological surveillance. Emergency preparations are needed and more resource elements need to be added to the current health support. This prediction is provisional and depends on keeping all intervening variables constant. Any alteration will modify the prediction.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
4_TD
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Pneumonia Viral
/
Infecções por Coronavirus
/
Pandemias
/
Betacoronavirus
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
America do sul
/
Chile
Idioma:
En
/
Es
/
Pt
Revista:
Rev Lat Am Enfermagem
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article