Maximum plaque height in carotid ultrasound predicts cardiovascular disease outcomes: a population-based validation study of the American society of echocardiography's grade II-III plaque characterization and protocol.

ABSTRACT

The presence of carotid arterial plaque by ultrasound enhances cardiovascular risk stratification beyond traditional risk factors. However, plaque quantification techniques require further outcomes-based investigation. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of a focused carotid ultrasound protocol and novel plaque grading system developed by the American Society of Echocardiography (ASE). A retrospective analysis of 514 outpatients who were referred for coronary angiography between 2011 and 2014 was performed using a province-sponsored health database. All participants prospectively received a focused carotid ultrasound. Maximum plaque height (MPH) of arterial carotid plaque was quantified, using the Grade II-III plaque definition of MPH ≥ 1.5 mm for stratification, according to recent ASE recommendations. Participants were followed for 1.33-5.11 years (average follow-up = 3.60 ± 1.65 years) to identify the occurrence of cardiovascular events. Major events (death, myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, and transient ischemic attack [TIA]) were correlated to MPH. Participants with MPH ≥ 1.5 mm were more likely to experience stable angina, coronary artery bypass grafting, and stress testing at both 1-year and total follow-up. After adjusting for cardiac risk factors, increased MPH was shown to be predictive for TIA (odds ratio [OR] = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.75); p = 0.04), whereas the odds of non-ST-elevation MI (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 0.99-2.43; p = 0.06) approached significance. Using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, MPH ≥ 1.5 mm demonstrated good separation for the composite outcome of death, MI, stroke, and TIA over total follow-up (p = 0.02). This rapid, office-based quantification of MPH in carotid ultrasound may serve as a stratification tool for predicting major cardiovascular events.