Comparison of the Accuracy of WhipPredict to That of a Modified Version of the Short-Form Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire to Predict Poor Recovery After Whiplash Injury.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the accuracy of a whiplash-specific risk screening tool (WhipPredict) with that of the modified generic short-form Örebro Musculoskeletal Pain Screening Questionnaire (SF-ÖMPSQ) for predicting poor recovery in patients following whiplash injury. STUDY DESIGN: Inception cohort study. METHODS: Two hundred two participants with acute whiplash completed the WhipPredict and modified SF-ÖMPSQ at baseline. Poor recovery was measured at 6 and 12 months using the Neck Disability Index (greater than 10%), numeric pain-rating scale (greater than 3/10), global perceived recovery (less than +4), and inability to return to preinjury work level. Accuracy statistics were calculated to predict poor recovery. RESULTS: Seventy-one percent (n = 143) of participants completed the 6-month assessment and 56% (n = 113) completed the 12-month assessment. At baseline, agreement between the WhipPredict and modified SF-ÖMPSQ was fair (prevalence-adjusted and bias-adjusted κ = 0.26; 95% confidence interval: 0.12, 0.39). Depending on the outcome, 20% to 72% of people had not recovered at 6 months and 12% to 71% had not recovered at 12 months. At 6 and 12 months, the WhipPredict tool showed high sensitivity (88%-96%) and low specificity (all outcomes less than 31%) on all 4 separate outcomes. The modified SF-ÖMPSQ showed moderate sensitivity (67%-75%) for the Neck Disability Index, numeric pain-rating scale, and global perceived recovery, high sensitivity for return to work (81%-90%), and moderate specificity (54%-77%) for all 4 outcomes. CONCLUSION: Both tools showed acceptable accuracy in predicting poor recovery. The WhipPredict tool is recommended to correctly identify patients who will not recover but may falsely classify those who recover well. Using the modified SF-ÖMPSQ will result in fewer patients falsely categorized as being at risk of poor recovery and may result in some people being undertreated. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2021;51(5):207-215. Epub 19 Feb 2021. doi:10.2519/jospt.2021.9987.