Projecting potential impact of COVID-19 on major cereal crops in Senegal and Burkina Faso using crop simulation models.

CONTEXT: The rapid emergence of COVID-19 could have direct and indirect impacts on food production systems and livelihoods of farmers. From the farming perspective, disruption of critical input availability, supply chains and labor, influence crop management. Disruptions to food systems can affect (a) planting area; and (b) crop yields. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the impacts of COVID-19 on major cereal crop's production and their cascading impact on national economy and related policies. METHODS: We used the calibrated crop simulation model (DSSAT suite) to project the impact of potential changes in planting area and grain yield of four major cereal crops (i.e., rice, maize, sorghum, and millet) in Senegal and Burkina Faso in terms of yield, total production, crop value and contribution to agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). Appropriate data (i.e., weather, soil, crop, and management practices) for the specific agroecological zones were used as an input in the model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The simulated yields for 2020 were then used to estimate crop production at country scale for the matrix of different scenarios of planting area and yield change (-15, -10, -5, 0, +5, +10%). Depending on the scenario, changes in total production of four cereals combined at country levels varied from 1.47 M tons to 2.47 M tons in Senegal and 4.51 M tons to 7.52 M tons in Burkina Faso. The economic value of all four cereals under different scenarios ranged from $771 Million (M) to $1292 M in Senegal and from $1251 M to $2098 M in Burkina Faso. These estimated total crop values under different scenarios were compared with total agricultural GDP of the country (in 2019 terms which was $3995 M in Senegal and $3957 M in Burkina Faso) to assess the economic impact of the pandemic on major cereal grain production. Based on the scenarios, the impact on total agricultural GDP can change -7% to +6% in Senegal and - 8% to +9% in Burkina Faso. SIGNIFICANCE: Results obtained from this modeling exercise will be valuable to policymakers and end-to-end value chain practitioners to prepare and develop appropriate policies to cope or manage the impact of COVID-19 on food systems.