The social cost of contacts: Theory and evidence for the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.
PLoS One
; 16(3): e0248288, 2021.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33740007
ABSTRACT
Building on the epidemiological SIR model, we present an economic model with heterogeneous individuals deriving utility from social contacts creating infection risks. Focusing on social distancing of individuals susceptible to an infection we theoretically characterize the gap between private and social cost of contacts. Our main contribution is to quantify this gap by calibrating the model with unique survey data from Germany on social distancing and impure altruism from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The optimal policy is to drastically reduce contacts at the beginning to almost eradicate the epidemic and keep them at levels that contain the pandemic at a low prevalence level. We find that also in laissez faire, private protection efforts by forward-looking, risk averse individuals would have stabilized the epidemic, but at a much higher prevalence of infection than optimal. Altruistic motives increase individual protection efforts, but a substantial gap to the social optimum remains.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
1_ASSA2030
/
2_ODS3
/
4_TD
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença
/
COVID-19
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article