Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators.
Ecol Lett
; 24(12): 2563-2575, 2021 Dec.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-34469020
ABSTRACT
Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Mudança Climática
/
Focas Verdadeiras
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Animals
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Ecol Lett
Ano de publicação:
2021
Tipo de documento:
Article