Correlation between mumps and meteorological factors in Xiamen City, China: A modelling study.
Infect Dis Model
; 7(2): 127-137, 2022 Jun.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-35573860
ABSTRACT
Objective:
Mumps is a seasonal infectious disease, always occurring in winter and spring. In this study, we aim to analyze its epidemiological characteristics, transmissibility, and its correlation with meteorological variables.Method:
A seasonal Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious/Asymptomatic-Recovered model and a next-generation matrix method were applied to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number (R t ).Results:
The seasonal double peak of annual incidence was mainly in May to July and November to December. There was high transmission at the median of R t = 1.091 (ranged 0 to 4.393). R t was seasonally distributed mainly from February to April and from September to November. Correlations were found between temperature (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] ranged from 0.101 to 0.115), average relative humidity (r = 0.070), average local pressure (r = -0.066), and the number of new cases. In addition, average local pressure (r = 0.188), average wind speed (r = 0.111), air temperature (r ranged -0.128 to -0.150), average relative humidity (r = -0.203) and sunshine duration (r = -0.075) were all correlated with R t .Conclusion:
A relatively high level of transmissibility has been found in Xiamen City, leading to a continuous epidemic of mumps. Meteorological factors, especially air temperature and relative humidity, may be more closely associated with mumps than other factors.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Infect Dis Model
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article