Improving Risk Assessment for Metastatic Disease in Endometrioid Endometrial Cancer Patients Using Molecular and Clinical Features: An NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group Study.

ABSTRACT

Objectives: A risk assessment model for metastasis in endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC) was developed using molecular and clinical features, and prognostic association was examined. Methods: Patients had stage I, IIIC, or IV EEC with tumor-derived RNA-sequencing or microarray-based data. Metastasis-associated transcripts and platform-centric diagnostic algorithms were selected and evaluated using regression modeling and receiver operating characteristic curves. Results: Seven metastasis-associated transcripts were selected from analysis in the training cohorts using 10-fold cross validation and incorporated into an MS7 classifier using platform-specific coefficients. The predictive accuracy of the MS7 classifier in Training-1 was superior to that of other clinical and molecular features, with an area under the curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.89 (0.80-0.98) for MS7 compared with 0.69 (0.59-0.80) and 0.71 (0.58-0.83) for the top evaluated clinical and molecular features, respectively. The performance of MS7 was independently validated in 245 patients using RNA sequencing and in 81 patients using microarray-based data. MS7 + MI (myometrial invasion) was preferrable to individual features and exhibited 100% sensitivity and negative predictive value. The MS7 classifier was associated with lower progression-free and overall survival (p ≤ 0.003). Conclusion: A risk assessment classifier for metastasis and prognosis in EEC patients with primary tumor derived MS7 + MI is available for further development and optimization as a companion clinical support tool.