Sagittal alignment cut-off values for predicting future fall-related fractures in community-dwelling osteoporotic women.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Determining the optimal cut-off value of sagittal alignment for detecting osteoporotic patients at high risk for fall-related fractures is essential for understanding fracture risk and informing clinicians and physical therapists. We determined the optimal cut-off value of sagittal alignment for detecting osteoporotic patients at high risk for fall-related fractures in this study. METHODS: In the retrospective cohort study, we enrolled a total of 255 women aged ≥ 65 years who visited an outpatient osteoporosis clinic. We measured participants' bone mineral density and sagittal alignment, including sagittal vertical axis (SVA), pelvic tilt, thoracic kyphosis, pelvic incidence, lumbar lordosis, global tilt, and gap score at the initial visit. The cut-off value for sagittal alignment that was significantly associated with fall-related fractures was calculated after using multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: Ultimately, 192 patients were included in the analysis. After a mean follow-up of 3.0 years, 12.0% (n = 23) had fractures due to falls. Multivariate Cox regression analysis confirmed that SVA (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.022, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.005-1.039) was the only independent predictor of fall-related fracture occurrence. The predictive ability of SVA for the occurrence of fall-related fractures was moderate (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.728, 95% CI = 0.623-0.834), with a cut-off value of 100 mm for SVA. SVA classified by cut-off value was also associated with an increased risk of developing fall-related fractures (HR = 17.002, 95% CI = 4.102-70.475). CONCLUSION: We found that assessing the cut-off value of sagittal alignment would be useful information in understanding fracture risk in postmenopausal older women.