Association of Initial and Longitudinal Changes in C-reactive Protein With the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, and Mortality.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the value of serial C-reactive protein (CRP) measurements in predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and mortality. METHODS: The analysis was performed using data from two prospective, population-based observational cohorts: the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-Stage Disease (PREVEND) study and the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). A total of 9253 participants had CRP measurements available at two examinations (PREVEND: 1997-1998 and 2001-2002; FHS Offspring cohort: 1995-1998 and 1998-2001). All CRP measurements were natural log-transformed before analyses. Cardiovascular disease included fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and peripheral vascular events, and heart failure. Cancer included all malignancies except nonmelanoma skin cancers. RESULTS: The mean age of the study population at baseline was 52.4±12.1 years and 51.2% (n=4733) were women. Advanced age, female sex, smoking, body mass index, and total cholesterol were associated with greater increases in CRP levels over time (Pall<.001 in the multivariable model). Baseline CRP, as well as increase in CRP over time (ΔCRP), were associated with incident CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.29 per 1-SD increase; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29 to 1.47, and HR per 1-SD increase: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.29 respectively). Similar findings were observed for incident cancer (baseline CRP, HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.26; ΔCRP, HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.15) and mortality (baseline CRP, HR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.37; ΔCRP, HR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.16). CONCLUSION: Initial as well as subsequent increases in CRP levels predict future CVD, cancer, and mortality in the general population.