Analyzing the effect of restrictions on the COVID-19 outbreak for some US states.
Theor Ecol
; 16(2): 117-129, 2023.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37284010
ABSTRACT
The ongoing pandemic disease COVID19 has caused worldwide social and financial disruption. As many countries are engaged in designing vaccines, the harmful second and third waves of COVID19 have already appeared in many countries. To investigate changes in transmission rates and the effect of social distancing in the USA, we formulate a system of ordinary differential equations using data of confirmed cases and deaths in these states California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and Missouri. Our models and their parameter estimations show social distancing can reduce the transmission of COVID19 by 60% to 90%. Thus, obeying the movement restriction rules is crucial in reducing the magnitude of the outbreak waves. This study also estimates the percentage of people who were not social distancing ranges between 10% and 18% in these states. Our analysis shows the management restrictions taken by these states do not slow the disease progression enough to contain the outbreak.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
4_TD
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Theor Ecol
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article