Genomic epidemiology offers high resolution estimates of serial intervals for COVID-19.
Nat Commun
; 14(1): 4830, 2023 08 10.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37563113
ABSTRACT
Serial intervals - the time between symptom onset in infector and infectee - are a fundamental quantity in infectious disease control. However, their estimation requires knowledge of individuals' exposures, typically obtained through resource-intensive contact tracing efforts. We introduce an alternate framework using virus sequences to inform who infected whom and thereby estimate serial intervals. We apply our technique to SARS-CoV-2 sequences from case clusters in the first two COVID-19 waves in Victoria, Australia. We find that our approach offers high resolution, cluster-specific serial interval estimates that are comparable with those obtained from contact data, despite requiring no knowledge of who infected whom and relying on incompletely-sampled data. Compared to a published serial interval, cluster-specific serial intervals can vary estimates of the effective reproduction number by a factor of 2-3. We find that serial interval estimates in settings such as schools and meat processing/packing plants are shorter than those in healthcare facilities.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Contexto em Saúde:
2_ODS3
/
4_TD
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Screening_studies
Limite:
Humans
País/Região como assunto:
Oceania
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nat Commun
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article