The association of heatwave with drowning mortality in five provinces of China.

ABSTRACT

Drowning is a serious public health problem in the world. Several studies have found that ambient temperature is associated with drowning, but few have investigated the effect of heatwave on drowning. This study aimed to explore the associations between heatwave and drowning mortality, and further estimate the mortality burden of drowning attributed to heatwave in China. Drowning mortality data were collected in 71 prefectures in China during 2013-2018 from provincial vital register system. Meteorological data at the same period were collected from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was first to explore the association between heatwave and drowning mortality in each prefecture. Secondly, the prefecture-specific associations were pooled using meta-analysis. Finally, attributable fractions (AFs) of drowning deaths caused by heatwave were estimated. Compared to normal day, the mortality risk of drowning significantly increased during heatwave (RR = 1.20, 95%CI 1.18-1.23). Higher risks were observed in males (RR = 1.23, 95%CI 1.20-1.27) than females (RR = 1.18, 95%CI 1.13-1.23), in children aged 5-14 years old (RR = 1.24, 95%CI 1.15-1.33) than other age groups, in urban city (RR = 1.32, 95%CI 1.28-1.36) than rural area (RR = 1.09, 95%CI 1.07-1.12) and in Jilin province (RR = 2.85, 95%CI 1.61-5.06) than other provinces. The AF of drowning deaths due to heatwave was 11.4 % (95%CI 10.0 %-12.9 %) during heatwave and 1.0 % (95%CI 0.9 %-1.1 %) during study period, respectively. Moreover, the AFs during study period were higher for male (1.2 %, 95%CI 1.0 %-1.3 %), children 5-14 years (1.1 %, 95%CI 0.7 %-1.6 %), urban city (1.6 %, 95%CI 1.4 %-1.8 %) than their correspondents. These differences were also observed in AFs during heatwave. We found that heatwave may significantly increase the mortality risk of drowning mortality, and its mortality burden attributable to heatwave was noteworthy. Targeted intervention should be carried out to decrease drowning mortality during heatwave.