Investigating symmetrical influence of economic expansion, oil price, and industrial production on trade deficit: a policy pathway toward three neighboring Asian states.

ABSTRACT

The intense objective of the present study is to investigate the symmetrical effectiveness of economic expansion, inflation rate, oil price, interest rate, and industrial production on trade deficit of the three neighboring states (China, Pakistan, and India). Westerlund bootstrap LM (Lagrange multiplier) panel co-integration test, Dumitrescu Herlin method, PMG-ARDL model, quantile regression, and quarterly data of last 15 years (2006Q1 to 2020Q4) have been utilized to envisage outcomes. Initial measurements validate the existence of stable co-integration and uni-directional causality among variables. Nevertheless, PMG-ARDL measures evaluates that in both long and short span of time, except industrial production all other regressors (economic expansion, inflation rate, oil price, and interest rate) positively influences the trade deficit in three neighboring states. Furthermore, robust estimates of quantile regression also authenticate the correctness of the above discuss relationship in study economies by evaluating positive (negative) impact of economic expansion, inflation rate, oil price, and interest rate (industrial production) on trade deficit. Thus, in policy pint of view, to lessen trade deficit hazard in studied economies, it is necessarily needed to encourage industrial production, replaced fossil fuel using outdated gadgets with advance green technology instruments, control inflation, and interest rate in single digit through strong budgetary and monetary policies and maintain economic expansion with appropriate and comprehensive taxation system.