Temporal change in aetiology and clinical characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma in a large cohort of patients in New South Wales, Australia.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Viral hepatitis, alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are the main risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in many countries. In Australia, given the access to hepatitis C virus (HCV) direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy since 2016, a temporal change in HCC aetiology was hypothesized. This study evaluated the temporal change in the aetiology and characteristics of HCC in New South Wales (NSW). METHODS: Patients diagnosed with HCC, admitted to three public hospitals in NSW between 2008 and 2021, were included in the analyses. We assessed the annual frequency of each HCC aetiology and the distribution of HCC characteristics in participants. RESULTS: Among 1370 patients, the most common HCC etiologies were HCV (n = 483, 35%), ARLD (n = 452, 33%), NAFLD (n = 347, 25%) and hepatitis B virus (n = 301, 22%). The proportion of HCV-related HCC was the highest in 2011-2016 (41%) and significantly declined to 30% in 2017-2021 (odds ratio [OR], 0.53 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.35-0.79]; P = 0.002). The proportion of HCC diagnosed at an early stage (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage O/A) increased from 41% in 2008-2009 to 56% in 2020-2021 (OR per annum, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.02-1.08]; P = 0.002), and the proportion of patients receiving potentially curative HCC management increased from 29% in 2008-2009 to 41% in 2020-2021 (OR per annum, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.03-1.10]; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The contribution of HCV to HCC burden has been decreasing in the DAA era, suggesting the role of HCV elimination in decreasing HCC risk. Increasing frequency of less advanced HCC at diagnosis over time suggests improved HCC surveillance.