Prediction of 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality after colorectal cancer surgery using a data-driven approach.
Int J Colorectal Dis
; 39(1): 31, 2024 Feb 29.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38421482
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
To develop prediction models for short-term mortality risk assessment following colorectal cancer surgery.METHODS:
Data was harmonized from four Danish observational health databases into the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model. With a data-driven approach using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator logistic regression on preoperative data, we developed 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality prediction models. We assessed discriminative performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic and precision-recall curve and calibration using calibration slope, intercept, and calibration-in-the-large. We additionally assessed model performance in subgroups of curative, palliative, elective, and emergency surgery.RESULTS:
A total of 57,521 patients were included in the study population, 51.1% male and with a median age of 72 years. The model showed good discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88, 0.878, and 0.861 for 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year mortality, respectively, and a calibration-in-the-large of 1.01, 0.99, and 0.99. The overall incidence of mortality were 4.48% for 30-day mortality, 6.64% for 90-day mortality, and 12.8% for 1-year mortality, respectively. Subgroup analysis showed no improvement of discrimination or calibration when separating the cohort into cohorts of elective surgery, emergency surgery, curative surgery, and palliative surgery.CONCLUSION:
We were able to train prediction models for the risk of short-term mortality on a data set of four combined national health databases with good discrimination and calibration. We found that one cohort including all operated patients resulted in better performing models than cohorts based on several subgroups.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Procedimentos Cirúrgicos do Sistema Digestório
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Neoplasias Colorretais
Limite:
Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Int J Colorectal Dis
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article