Developing and validating a prediction model of live birth following single vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer.
Reprod Biomed Online
; 49(1): 103890, 2024 Jul.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38744027
ABSTRACT
RESEARCH QUESTION Can the developed clinical prediction model offer an accurate estimate of the likelihood of live birth, involving blastocyst morphology and vitrification day after single vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer (SVBT), and therefore assist clinicians and patients? STUDY DESIGN:
Retrospective cohort study conducted at a Spanish university-based reproductive medicine unit (2017-2021) including consecutive vitrified-warmed blastocysts from IVF cycles. A multivariable logistic regression incorporated key live birth predictors vitrification day, embryo score, embryo ploidy status and clinically relevant variables, i.e. maternal age.RESULTS:
The training set involved 1653 SVBT cycles carried out between 2017 and 2020; 592 SVBT cycles from 2021 constituted the external validation dataset. The model revealed that female age and embryo characteristics, including overall quality and blastulation day, is linked to live birth rate in SVBT cycles. Stratification by vitrification day and quality (from day-5A to day-6 C blastocysts) applied to genetically tested and untested embryos. The model's area under the curve was 0.66 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.69) during development and 0.65 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.70) in validation, denoting moderate discrimination. Calibration plots showed strong agreement between predicted and observed probabilities.CONCLUSION:
By incorporating essential predictors such as vitrification day, embryo morphology grade, age and preimplantation genetic testing for aneuploidy usage, this predictive model offers valuable guidance to clinicians and patients, enabling accurate forecasts of live birth rates for any given vitrified blastocyst within SVBT cycles. Additionally, it serves as a potentially indispensable laboratory tool, aiding in selecting the most promising blastocysts for optimal outcomes.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Criopreservação
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Transferência Embrionária
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Nascido Vivo
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Vitrificação
Limite:
Adult
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Female
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Humans
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Pregnancy
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Reprod Biomed Online
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article