Assessing mortality risk in Type 2 Diabetes patients with prolonged ASCVD risk factors: the inclusive Poh-Ai predictive scoring system with CAC Score integration.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: To enhance the predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) and prolonged Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) risk factors. Despite the utility of the Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) score in assessing cardiovascular risk, its capacity to predict all-cause mortality remains limited. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study included 1929 asymptomatic T2DM patients with ASCVD risk factors, aged 40-80. Variables encompassed demographic attributes, clinical parameters, CAC scores, comorbidities, and medication usage. Factors predicting all-cause mortality were selected to create a predictive scoring system. By using stepwise selection in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, we divided the patients into three risk groups. RESULTS: In our analysis of all-cause mortality in T2DM patients with extended ASCVD risk factors over 5 years, we identified significant risk factors, their adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), and scores e.g., CAC score > 1000 (aHR 1.57, score 2), CAC score 401-1000 (aHR 2.05, score 2), and more. These factors strongly predict all-cause mortality, with varying risk groups (e.g., very low-risk 2.0%, very high-risk 24.0%). Significant differences in 5-year overall survival rates were observed among these groups (log-rank test < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The Poh-Ai Predictive Scoring System excels in forecasting mortality and cardiovascular events in individuals with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and extended ASCVD risk factors.