The relationship between freight train length and the risk of derailment.

ABSTRACT

In recent years, longer and heavier trains have become more common, primarily driven by efficiency and cost-saving measures in the railroad industry. Regulation of train length is currently under consideration in the United States at both the federal and state levels, because of concerns that longer trains may have a higher risk of derailment, but the relationship between train length and risk of derailment is not yet well understood. In this study, we use data on freight train accidents during the 2013-2022 period from the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Rail Equipment Accident and Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Accident databases to estimate the relationship between freight train length and the risk of derailment. We determine that longer trains do have a greater risk of derailment. Based on our analysis, running 100-car trains is associated with 1.11 (95% confidence interval 1.10-1.12) times the derailment odds of running 50-car trains (or a 11% increase), even accounting for the fact that only half as many 100-car trains would need to run. For 200-car trains, the odds increase by 24% (odds ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.20-1.28), again accounting for the need for fewer trains. Understanding derailment risk is an important component for evaluating the overall safety of the rail system and for the future development and regulation of freight rail transportation. Given the limitations of the current data on freight train length, this study provides an important step toward such an understanding.