Trends and future projections of incidence rate and mortality of rheumatoid arthritis in China: a systematic analysis based on GBD 2021 data.

ABSTRACT

This study aims to evaluate the trends in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in China from 1990 to 2021 by analyzing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study and to predict the trends for the next 25 years. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated, and the estimated annual percentage change was used to illustrate differences in age distribution among various populations. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models were employed to forecast the burden of RA in China from 2022 to 2046. From 1990 to 2021, the ASIR of RA in China increased from 11.6 to 13.7, with a significantly higher ASIR in females than in males. Despite the increase in incidence, the ASMR related to RA decreased from 0.7 to 0.5. Predictions using the BAPC model indicate that the incidence of RA will continue to rise, with an expected ASIR of approximately 16.4 by 2046, and the total number of RA cases is projected to reach around 342,000. In terms of mortality, the ASMR is expected to decline to 0.3 by 2046, although the total number of deaths might reach about 40,000. The incidence of RA in China has significantly increased over the past 30 years. Although the incidence rate and the total number of RA cases may continue to rise in the future, the mortality rate of RA has been consistently declining. Key Points • Over the past 30 years, the incidence of RA in China has significantly increased; although the incidence rate and total number of cases may continue to rise, the mortality rate has been consistently declining.