Defining gestational thyroid dysfunction through modified non-pregnancy reference intervals: an individual participant meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Establishing local trimester-specific reference intervals for gestational TSH and FT4 is often not feasible, necessitating alternative strategies. We aimed to systematically quantify the diagnostic performance of standardized modifications of center-specific non-pregnancy reference intervals as compared to trimester-specific reference intervals. METHODS: We included prospective cohorts participating in the Consortium on Thyroid and Pregnancy. After relevant exclusions, reference intervals were calculated per cohort in thyroperoxidase antibody-negative women. Modifications to the non-pregnancy reference intervals included an absolute modification (per 0.1 mU/L TSH or 1 pmol/L FT4), relative modification (in steps of 5%) and fixed limits (upper TSH limit between 3.0 to 4.5 mU/L and lower FT4 limit 5-15 pmol/L). We compared (sub)clinical hypothyroidism prevalence, sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) of aforementioned methodologies with population-based trimester-specific reference intervals. RESULTS: The final study population comprised 52,496 participants in 18 cohorts. Optimal modifications of standard reference intervals to diagnose gestational overt hypothyroidism were -5% for the upper limit of TSH and +5% for the lower limit of FT4 (sensitivity 0.70, confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.86; PPV 0.64, CI 0.54-0.74). For subclinical hypothyroidism, these were -20% for the upper limit of TSH and -15% for the lower limit of FT4 (sensitivity 0.91, CI 0.67-0.98; PPV 0.71, CI 0.58-0.80). Absolute and fixed modifications yielded similar results. Confidence intervals were wide, limiting generalizability. CONCLUSION: We could not identify modifications of non-pregnancy TSH and FT4 reference intervals that would enable centers to adequately approximate trimester-specific reference intervals. Future efforts should be turned towards studying the meaningfulness of trimester-specific reference intervals and risk-based decision limits.