Human activities exacerbate river network degrading in the Qinhuai River basin.

ABSTRACT

Rivers are undergoing significant changes under the pressures of natural processes and human activities. However, characterizing and understanding these changes over the long term and from a spatial perspective have proven challenging. This paper presents a novel framework featuring twelve indicators that combine geometric and spatial structures for evaluating changes in river network patterns. Through global principal component analysis, these indicators were integrated into a comprehensive river network pattern index (RNP). Employing Pearson correlation analysis, geographically weighted regression, geographic detector models, and the Shapley Value, the study quantitatively analyzed various stressors' impacts and relative contributions on river network changes from the 1960s to 2015s. The results showed a clear trend of degradation over time, particularly with frequency and density declining by 57 % and 48 %, respectively. The changes across subbasins varied temporally and spatially, with the 1980s emerging as a significant temporal hotspot and six spatial hotspots identified among twenty subbasins. The analysis showed that agriculture was significantly negatively associated with RNP, while the relationship between urbanization and RNP was inverted N-shaped. To address the negative effects of human activities, a shift from uniform management approaches is crucial. In agricultural areas, adopting more intensive farming practices could help mitigate negative impacts on RNP. For highly urbanized regions, city planning should consider the interactions between urbanization and other factors affecting RNP. Overall, incorporating an understanding of RNP's spatial-temporal dynamics and driving factors into spatial planning is critical for creating effective and sustainable management strategies for human-river interactions.