Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362.

Comparison of international normalized ratio audit parameters in patients enrolled in GARFIELD-AF and treated with vitamin K antagonists.

Vitamin K antagonist (VKA) therapy for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) requires monitoring of the international normalized ratio (INR). We evaluated the agreement between two INR audit parameters, frequency in range (FIR) and proportion of time in the therapeutic range (TTR), using data from a global population of patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF, the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF). Among 17 168 patients with 1-year follow-up data available at the time of the analysis, 8445 received VKA therapy (±antiplatelet therapy) at enrolment, and of these patients, 5066 with ≥3 INR readings and for whom both FIR and TTR could be calculated were included in the analysis. In total, 70 905 INRs were analysed. At the patient level, TTR showed higher values than FIR (mean, 56·0% vs 49·8%; median, 59·7% vs 50·0%). Although patient-level FIR and TTR values were highly correlated (Pearson correlation coefficient [95% confidence interval; CI], 0·860 [0·852-0·867]), estimates from individuals showed widespread disagreement and variability (Lin's concordance coefficient [95% CI], 0·829 [0·821-0·837]). The difference between FIR and TTR explained 17·4% of the total variability of measurements. These results suggest that FIR and TTR are not equivalent and cannot be used interchangeably.

Prescription patterns of antiepileptic drugs in young women: development of a tool to distinguish between epilepsy and psychiatric disorders.

BACKGROUND: Antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) are also prescribed for therapeutic indications other than epilepsy (EPI), namely, psychiatric disorders (PSY). Our aim was to develop an algorithm able to distinguish between EPI and PSY among childbearing age women based on differences in AED exposure in these patient groups. METHODS: Two groups of women (18-45 years) with EPI or PSY treated with AEDs in the first semester of 2010 or 2011 were extracted from paper or electronic medical charts of specialized centers. Through the prescription database of Bologna Local Health Authority (Italy), AEDs, treatment schedule and co-treatments were collected for each patient. A prescription-based hierarchical classification system was developed. The algorithm obtained was subsequently validated on internal and external data. RESULTS: Eighty-one EPI and 94 PSY subjects were recruited. AED monotherapy was the most common choice in both groups (69% EPI vs 79% PSY). Some AEDs were used only in EPI, others exclusively in PSY. Co-treatments with antipsychotics (6% vs 67%), lithium (0% vs 9%), and antidepressants (7% vs 70%) were fewer in EPI than in PSY. The hierarchical classification system identified antipsychotics, SSRIs (Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors), and number of AEDs as variables to discriminate EPI and PSY, with an overall error rate estimate of 9.7% (95%CI: 5.3% to 14.1%). CONCLUSION: Among the differences between EPI and PSY, prescription data alone allowed an algorithm to be developed to diagnose each childbearing age woman receiving AEDs. This approach will be useful to stratify patients for risk estimates of AED-treated patients based on administrative databases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quality indicators in acute stroke care: a prospective observational survey in 13 Italian regions.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Quality monitoring has great relevance in stroke care. The Project "How to guarantee adherence to effective interventions in stroke care" aimed to estimate adherence to acute-phase guidelines in stroke care in Italy. METHODS: A prospective observational study was performed in 27 hospitals of 13 Italian Regions. Adherence to 15 process indicators was evaluated, comparing also stroke units (SU) with conventional wards. An overall score of care, defined as the sum of achieved indicators, was calculated. A multilevel hierarchical model described performance at patient, hospital and regional level. RESULTS: Overall, 484 consecutive stroke patients (mean age, 73.4 years; 52.7 % males) were included. Total score ranged from 2 to 15 (mean 8.5 ± 2.4). SU patients were more often evaluated with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) within 24 h, had more frequently an assessment of pre- and post-stroke disability, and a CT scan the same or the day after admission. Regional-hospital- and patient-level variability explained, respectively, 25, 34, and 41 % of total score variance. In multivariate models, patients >80 years vs. younger showed a change in total score of -0.45 (95 % CI -0.79 to -0.12), and those with NIHSS ≥14 vs. ≤5 of -0.92 (95 % CI -1.53 to -0.30). A negative change means a worse adjusted average adherence to process indicators. SU admission increased total score of 1.55 (95 % CI 0.52-2.58). CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm the need of quality monitoring in stroke care. Although SU patients showed a better adherence to quality indicators, overall compliance was unsatisfactory.

[Environmental indicators in EpiAir2 project: air quality data for epidemiological surveillance]. / Indicatori ambientali nello studio EpiAir2: i dati di qualità dell'aria per la sorveglianza epidemiologica.

OBJECTIVE: construction of environmental indicators of air pollution suitable for epidemiological surveillance in 25 Italian cities for EpiAir2 project (2006-2010) and presentation of the results from a 10 years of surveillance system (2001-2010) in 10 Italian cities. DESIGN: data on particulate matter (PM10 and its fine fraction PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3), measured in the 2006-2010 calendar period, were collected. Meteorological data needed to estimate unbiased measures of the effect of pollutants are: temperature, relative humidity (estimated "apparent temperature"), and barometric pressure. In continuity with the previous EpiAir project, the same criteria for the selection of monitoring stations were applied and standard methods to estimate daily environmental indicators were used. Furthermore, it was checked the adequacy of the selected data to represent the population exposure. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: EpiAir2 project, relative to the period 2006-2010, involves the cities of Milano, Mestre-Venezia, Torino, Bologna, Firenze, Pisa, Roma, Taranto, Cagliari, and Palermo, already included in the previous study. The city of Treviso, Trieste, Padova, Rovigo, Piacenza, Parma, Ferrara, Reggio Emilia, Modena, Genova, Rimini, Ancona, Bari, Brindisi, and Napoli are added to the previous group. RESULTS: particulate matter concentrations have decreased in most cities during the study period, while concentrations of NO2 and ozone do not show a similar clear trend. The analysis of the trend showed annual mean values of PM10 higher than 40 µg/m(3) in some areas of the Po Valley, and annual mean values of NO2 higher than 40 µg/m(3) in the cities of Trieste, Milano, Padova, Torino, Modena, Bologna, Roma, and Napoli. CONCLUSION: the enlargement of the EpiAir project to 13 other cities has highlighted critical issues related to the different geographical areas under study. Results of EpiAir2 project point out the need of a monitoring system of air pollution concentrations in both urban and industrial sites, in order to obtain reliable estimates of exposure for resident populations and to evaluate the related time trend.

[Health technology assessment report: HPV DNA based primary screening for cervical cancer precursors]. / Health technology assessment report: ricerca del DNA di papillomavirus umano (HPV) come test primario per lo screening dei precursori del cancro del collo dell'utero.

UNLABELLED: OBJECTIVE OF THE PROJECT: The introduction of the HPV test as a primary screening test will cause important changes in the screening system based on cytology. The purposes of this report are: to define the best screening policies with HPV-based screening on the basis of the resulting efficacy and of undesired effects; comparing them to cytology-based screening; to identify their best conditions of application; to evaluate economic cost, feasibility and impact on the organisation of services of such policy in the Italian situation. CONTENTS: This report contains a section on efficacy and undesired effects based on a systematic review of literature conducted in strict coordination with the preparation of a supplement to the European Guidelines for quality assurance in cervical cancer screening. This chapter corresponds to a preliminary version of the chapter of the European Guidelines on primary screening with HPV. The sections on costs, impact on organisation, and social, ethical and legal impact reflect the Italian situation; they are based on a review of the available Italian data (including unpublished data, mainly from on-going pilot projects) and on a structured analysis of what will result if the proposed protocol is applied to the Italian situation. RESULTS: Efficacy and undesired effects. There is clear scientific evidence that a screening based on validated tests for the DNA of oncogenic HPV as primary test and applying an appropriate protocol is more effective than screening based on cytology in preventing invasive cancers of the uterine cervix. In addition, it entails a limited--if any--increase of the undesired effects both in terms of unneeded referral to diagnostic work-up and in terms of over-diagnosis and consequent overtreatment of spontaneously regressive lesions. The crucial elements of such protocol are the followings: HPV-positive women are not to be directly referred to colposcopy, but the use of triage systems is essential. The currently recommendable method is based on performing cytology in HPV positive women. If the result of this test is abnormal, the woman is immediately referred to colposcopy; if cytology is normal, the woman is invited to repeat a new HPV test after one year. In case such a test is still positive, the woman is referred to colposcopy; in case of negative result, the woman will be re-invited for a new screening round at the regular interval. In organised population-based screening programmes the interval after a negative primary HPV test should be at least 5 years. There is evidence that the 5-year cumulative risk of high-grade CIN after a negative HPV test is lower than the 3-year risk after a normal cytology. On the other hand, the probability of unneeded colposcopies and treatments would plausibly be relevant with 3-year intervals after a negative HPV test. HPV-based screening should not start before 30-35 years. There is evidence that below 30 years HPV-based screening leads to an increased overdiagnosis of CIN2 that would regress spontaneously, with consequent overtreatment. Some increase in overdiagnosis is plausible also between 30 and 34 years. Below such ages, cytological screening is the recommended test. Only tests for the DNA of oncogenic HPV, validated according to the European guidelines as for sensitivity and specificity for high-grade lesions, should be applied. There is no evidence that double testing with cytology and HPV is more protective than stand-alone HPV as primary test, although it entails a small and not relevant increase in sensitivity vs stand-alone HPV. On the contrary, there is evidence that double testing causes a substantial increase in referral to colposcopy and a decrease in its PPV. For this reason, if HPV is used as primary screening test, it is recommended not to add cytology in parallel. Cost and economic evaluation. It is estimated that, if the protocol described is applied, in the current Italian situation the overall costs of HPV-based screening are lower than those of conventional cytological screening applied at the current 3-year intervals, although the cost of each screening round is higher. Impact on organization. For reasons of quality and cost, both the interpretation of cytology and HPV testing require a centralisation. This need is particularly strong, in terms of costs, for HPV test execution. It is therefore recommended to perform the HPV test in a limited number of reference laboratories of large size. This also makes monitoring and evaluating the spontaneous activity easier. HPV-based screening entails problems of organisation related to the need of triage, to complex protocols and to reconversion of the activities of cytological interpretation. Social, ethical and legal impact. The communication of the result of the HPV test to women, particularly if positive, is a further crucial aspect in order to reduce not only the emotional impact, but also the possible risks that women are inappropriately managed or lost to follow-up. Great efforts must be put in the education of healthcare professionals, both directly involved in organised programmes or not, particularly private gynaecologists and general practitioners. RECOMMENDATIONS: In conclusion, the crucial requirement to introduce HPV-based screening programmes is the capacity to guarantee the application of appropriate screening protocols. If protocols do not respect the criteria described above they can cause relevant increase of undesired effects and costs compared to cytology-based screening. Therefore they should be avoided, except in studies able to provide clear evidence about human and economic costs. For this purpose, correct education and information both to healthcare professionals and to the population is needed. In the Italian situation, where organised screening and a relevant spontaneous activity coexist, their interaction is crucial. Actions directed to integrate them and to guarantee as more uniformity of interventions as possible are needed, in particular through the integration of registries and thorough monitoring and a progressive homogenization of protocols. In order to grant the safety of transition, it is needed that the HPV-based organised screening activities are strictly monitored and that the National Centre for Screening Monitoring (ONS) ensures coordination. Knowledge about HPV based screening is still rapidly evolving. It is possible that currently on-going researches suggest changes to the optimal protocols in the next few years, particularly as for the management of HPV positive women. In addition, studies on the validation of new assays were recently published and others are expected. It is suggested to exploit the organised screening activity to produce scientific evidence, in order to clarify the still uncertain aspects of optimal protocols. Different protocols in terms of screening intervals, age of application and management of HPV positive women should be studied in the frame of controlled implementation, through multicentre projects coordinated by ONS. Finally, it is suggested the creation of a National working group to promptly update the recommendations for screening and the list of assays to be considered as validated. On the bases of the results obtained in the first vaccinated cohorts reaching the screening age, for the future, it will be crucial to deliver specific recommendations to the population vaccinated against HPV during adolescence.

Asthma symptoms, lung function, and markers of oxidative stress and inflammation in children exposed to oil refinery pollution.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the effects of exposure to petroleum refinery emissions on respiratory health in children. We evaluated lung function and markers of inflammation and oxidative stress in children and adolescents with and without asthma or wheezing symptoms living in a petrochemical polluted area (Sarroch, Sardinia) versus a reference area (Burcei). METHODS: Parents of 275/300 6- to 14-year-old children living in Sarroch and parents of 214/323 children living in Burcei answered a questionnaire on respiratory symptoms and risk factors. Measurements of forced expiratory volume after 1 second (FEV(1)) and of forced expiratory flow rates at 25-75% of vital capacity (FEF(25-75)) were available in 27 and 23 asthma/wheezing-positive subjects and in 7 and 54 asthma/wheezing-negative subjects in Sarroch and in Burcei, respectively; for fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FE(NO)) corresponding figures were 27 and 24 and 8 and 55 in Sarroch and in Burcei, respectively. Malondialdehyde-deoxyguanosine (MDA-dG) adduct levels in nasal mucosa were measured in 12- to 14-year-old adolescents (8 and 14 asthma/wheezing-positive and 20 and 28 asthma/wheezing-negative subjects in Sarroch and in Burcei, respectively). Air pollutants were assessed during 3 weeks, starting 1 week before lung function, FE(NO), and MDA-dG measurements. Generalized linear models were used to estimate the effect of the area of residence adjusting for confounders. RESULTS: Weekly average concentrations of sulfur dioxide were 6.9-61.6 µg/m(3) in Sarroch versus 0.3-7.6 µg/m(3) in the rural area of Burcei; of nitrogen dioxide, 5.2-28.7 µg/m(3) versus 1.7-5.3 µg/m(3); and of benzene, 1.8-9.0 µg/m(3) versus 1.3-1.5 µg/m(3), respectively. Children living in Sarroch versus children living in the reference area showed an increase in wheezing symptoms {adjusted prevalence ratio=1.70 [90% confidence interval (CI)=1.01; 2.86]}; a decrease in lung function [variation in FEV(1)=-10.3% (90% CI=-15.0; -6.0%) and in FEF(25-75)=-12.9% (90% CI=-20.7; -4.3%)]; an increase in bronchial inflammation [variation in FE(NO)=+35% (90% CI=11.7; 80.1%)]; and an increase in MDA-dG adducts of +83% (90% CI=22.9; 174.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Data from this small study are consistent with the role of environmental pollutants on lung function and inflammation.

Diagnostic accuracy of 64-slice computed tomography coronary angiography for the detection of in-stent restenosis: a meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: We sought to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of 64-slice multi-detector row computed tomography (MDCT) compared with invasive coronary angiography for in-stent restenosis (ISR) detection. METHODS: MEDLINE, Cochrane library, and BioMed Central database searches were performed until April 2009 for original articles. Inclusion criteria were (1) 64-MDCT was used as a diagnostic test for ISR, with >50% diameter stenosis selected as the cut-off criterion for significant ISR, using invasive coronary angiography and quantitative coronary angiography as the standard of reference; (2) absolute numbers of true positive, false positive, true negative, and false negative results could be derived. Standard meta-analytic methods were applied. RESULTS: Nine studies with a total of 598 patients with 978 stents included were considered eligible. On average, 9% of stents were unassessable (range 0-42%). Accuracy tests with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing 64-MDCT vs invasive coronary angiography showed that pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratio (random effect model) values were: 86% (95% CI 80-91%), 93% (95% CI 91-95%), 12.32 (95% CI 7.26-20.92), 0.18 (95% CI 0.12-0.28) for binary ISR detection. The symmetric area under the curve value was 0.94, indicating good agreement between 64-MDCT and invasive coronary angiography. CONCLUSIONS: 64-MDCT has a good diagnostic accuracy for ISR detection with a particularly high negative predictive value. However, still a relatively large proportion of stents remains uninterpretable. Accordingly, only in selected patients, 64-MDCT may serve as a potential alternative noninvasive method to rule out ISR.

High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities.

RATIONALE: Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. METHODS: For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.

Indoor exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and dampness: respiratory symptoms in Sardinian children--DRIAS study.

Indoor exposures at home, environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and mould/dampness adversely affect respiratory health of children. Disturbi Respiratori nell'Infanzia e Ambiente in Sardegna (DRIAS) (Respiratory Symptoms in children and the Environment in Sardegna, Italy) aims at relating the prevalence of respiratory and allergic symptoms to indoor exposures in Sardinian children. DRIAS, a cross-sectional investigation of respiratory symptoms/diseases, used a modified version of ISAAC questionnaire, included 4122 children attending 29 primary schools in the school year 2004-2005. If both parents smoke the prevalence for current wheeze and current asthma is almost doubled in comparison with never smokers, for persistent cough and phlegm a role is suggested when only mother smokes. Among mothers smoking in pregnancy, the prevalence of current wheeze and current asthma is increased. Exposure to ETS and family atopy have a joint effect resulting in an almost tripling of prevalence for current wheeze and more than four times for current asthma. Exposure to "dampness" (mould or dampness) both during the first year of life and currently is associated with increased prevalence of current wheeze, persistent cough or phlegm and current rhino-conjunctivitis; if exposure is only during the first year of life a doubling or more of prevalence is observed for current wheeze, current asthma, and persistent cough or phlegm. DRIAS results add evidence to the causal role of childhood exposure to ETS in the development of respiratory symptoms (cough, phlegm, and wheezing) and asthma. The joint effect of ETS and family atopy is corroborated. The results strengthen the evidence for a causal association between "dampness" and respiratory health, pointing to its possible independent role in causing asthma, a long-lasting exposure entails a doubled prevalence for both asthmatic and bronchitis symptoms.

[Environmental indicators in ten Italian cities (2001-2005): the air quality data for epidemiological surveillance]. / Indicatori ambientali in dieci città italiane (2001-2005): i dati di qualità dell'aria per la sorveglianza epidemiologica.

OBJECTIVE: to produce environmental indicators suitable for an epidemiological surveillance in 10 Italian cities part of the EpiAir Project (2001-2005). METHODS: the environmental parameters that correlate to relevant health effects are the particles with diameters less than or equal to 10 micrometers (PM10), the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and the ozone (O3). The necessary meteorological data are: temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure and apparent temperature.We have identified some criteria to select monitoring stations and have taken standard methods of calculation to produce environmental indicators starting from the daily data available after closely evaluating the completeness of the existing data. Furthermore, we have checked the homogeneity of the selected data to ensure that it represents the population's exposure. RESULTS: close examination of descriptive statistics shows a critical situation of the considered pollutants. The analysis of the yearly state underlines for PM10 values higher than 40 microg/m3 in the area of Mestre-Venice and in Milan, Turin, Bologna e Taranto. For NO2, values are consistently above 40 microg/m3 in Milan, Turin, Bologna, Florence, Rome and Palermo. For ozone, the concentrations were stable, with the exception of Summer 2003 when we recorded, on average, an increase of 13% compared to the mean value estimated for the ten cities during the study period, especially in Mestre-Venice, Turin and Palermo. CONCLUSIONS: it is important to ensure the consistency of the methods and instruments in environmental monitoring. To evaluate health effects and perform interventions over the longterm, it is therefore fundamental that the data be homogenous, especially during the periodic reorganizations and rationalizations of air quality management. It is also necessary to include daily meteorological data that influence pollutant dispersion and population health status.

[Air pollution and mortality in ten Italian cities. Results of the EpiAir Project]. / Inquinamento atmosferico e mortalità in dieci città italiane. Risultati del Progetto EpiAir.

OBJECTIVE: the relationship between air pollution and mortality has been well established in national and international scientific literature. This study reports the results of the EpiAir Project relative to the effect of air pollution on mortality in 10 Italian cities during 2001-2005. The association between particulate matter (PM10) and gases (nitrogen dioxide, NO2, and ozone, O3), and all natural mortality, as well as cardiac, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality, is presented. Specific issues have been investigated, such as the latency of the air pollution-mortality effects and the identification of individual demographic characteristics and clinical conditions that result in greater susceptibility to the effects of particulate matter. METHODS: the study population consisted of 276,205 subjects aged 35+ years old, resident in one of the 10 Italian cities studied, which died in the city between 2001-2005. For each subject, information was collected on cause of death, location of death, demographical variables and hospital discharge diagnoses in the previous 2-year period. The statistical analysis was adjusted for the relevant temporal and meteorological factors using the case-crossover approach. The results for ozone are limited to the warm semester (April through September). An analysis of the association between air pollution and mortality was conducted for each city, and the city-specific estimates were meta-analyzed on a second level to obtain a pooled result, and reported inter-city heterogeneity. RESULTS: a short-term effect of PM10 on mortality has been detected for all the groups of causes considered, with latencies ranging from lag 0 for cerebrovascular mortality to lag 0-3 for respiratory mortality. The association between NO2 and mortality displays strong and similar effects for all death causes, with prolonged effects (lag 0-5) for all groups of causes. The results for O3 are similar to those found for NO2, with prolonged latency (lag 0-5) for all causes of death with the exception of cerebrovascular mortality, for which a delayed effect (lag 3-5) was identified. Individual susceptibility factors of the PM10-natural mortality association include age, as elderly subjects are especially vulnerable to the effects of particles. CONCLUSIONS: the main results of the study suggest that the air pollution originated by vehicular traffic is the most relevant environmental problem in Italian cities from a public health viewpoint.

A Panel Study on Lung Function and Bronchial Inflammation among Children Exposed to Ambient SO2 from an Oil Refinery.

To determine the acute effects on respiratory function of children exposed to sulphur dioxide (SO2), we conducted two population-based longitudinal investigations near a major oil refinery. We enrolled 233 children, age 8⁻14, in Sarroch (Italy). The first study entailed five monthly spirometric visits (Panel 5). In a subgroup, children positive for history of respiratory symptoms were tested weekly (20 times) with spirometry and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) measurement (Panel 20). Baseline questionnaires and daily diaries were recorded. SO2, NO2, PM10 and O3 were measured by monitoring stations. Multiple regression models were fitted. Using a multipollutant model, we found that a 10 µg/m³ SO2 increase at lag0⁻2 days determined a percent variation (PV) of -3.37 (90% confidence interval, CI: -5.39; -1.30) for forced expiratory volume after one second (FEV1) in Panel 5 and a PV = -3.51 (90% CI: -4.77; -2.23) in Panel 20. We found a strong dose-response relation: 1-h SO2 peaks >200 µg/m³ at lag2 days = FEV1 PV -2.49. For FeNO, we found a PV = 38.12 (90% CI: 12.88; 69.01) for each 10 µg/m³ SO2 increase at 8-h time lag and a strong dose-response relation. Exposure to SO2 is strongly associated with reduction of lung function and an increase in airway inflammation. This new evidence of harmful effects of SO2 peaks should induce regulatory intervention.

Heat effects on mortality in 15 European cities.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. METHODS: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and the city-specific results were combined in a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distributed lag models in studying the delayed effect of exposure. Time-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. RESULTS: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V shape, with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4 degrees C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3 degrees C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

Why are outcomes different for registry patients enrolled prospectively and retrospectively? Insights from the global anticoagulant registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Aims: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0 and 18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection December 2009 and October 2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between March 2010 and October 2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs. 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51-3.67] vs. 4.05 [95% CI 3.53-4.63]; P = 0.016). Conclusion: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical trial registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362).

Risk factors for death, stroke, and bleeding in 28,628 patients from the GARFIELD-AF registry: Rationale for comprehensive management of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The factors influencing three major outcomes-death, stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and major bleeding-have not been investigated in a large international cohort of unselected patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In 28,628 patients prospectively enrolled in the GARFIELD-AF registry with 2-year follow-up, we aimed at analysing: (1) the variables influencing outcomes; (2) the extent of implementation of guideline-recommended therapies in comorbidities that strongly affect outcomes. Median (IQR) age was 71.0 (63.0 to 78.0) years, 44.4% of patients were female, median (IQR) CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.0 (2.0 to 4.0); 63.3% of patients were on anticoagulants (ACs) with or without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 24.5% AP monotherapy, and 12.2% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2 years, rates (95% CI) of death, stroke/SE, and major bleeding were 3.84 (3.68; 4.02), 1.27 (1.18; 1.38), and 0.71 (0.64; 0.79) per 100 person-years. Age, history of stroke/SE, vascular disease (VascD), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) were associated with the risks of all three outcomes. Congestive heart failure (CHF) was associated with the risks of death and stroke/SE. Smoking, non-paroxysmal forms of AF, and history of bleeding were associated with the risk of death, female sex and heavy drinking with the risk of stroke/SE. Asian race was associated with lower risks of death and major bleeding versus other races. AC treatment was associated with 30% and 28% lower risks of death and stroke/SE, respectively, compared with no AC treatment. Rates of prescription of guideline-recommended drugs were suboptimal in patients with CHF, VascD, or CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that several variables are associated with the risk of one or more outcomes, in terms of death, stroke/SE, and major bleeding. Comprehensive management of AF should encompass, besides anticoagulation, improved implementation of guideline-recommended therapies for comorbidities strongly associated with outcomes, namely CHF, VascD, and CKD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01090362.

Assessment and prevention of acute health effects of weather conditions in Europe, the PHEWE project: background, objectives, design.

BACKGROUND: The project "Assessment and prevention of acute health effects of weather conditions in Europe" (PHEWE) had the aim of assessing the association between weather conditions and acute health effects, during both warm and cold seasons in 16 European cities with widely differing climatic conditions and to provide information for public health policies. METHODS: The PHEWE project was a three-year pan-European collaboration between epidemiologists, meteorologists and experts in public health. Meteorological, air pollution and mortality data from 16 cities and hospital admission data from 12 cities were available from 1990 to 2000. The short-term effect on mortality/morbidity was evaluated through city-specific and pooled time series analysis. The interaction between weather and air pollutants was evaluated and health impact assessments were performed to quantify the effect on the different populations. A heat/health watch warning system to predict oppressive weather conditions and alert the population was developed in a subgroup of cities and information on existing prevention policies and of adaptive strategies was gathered. RESULTS: Main results were presented in a symposium at the conference of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology in Paris on September 6th 2006 and will be published as scientific articles. The present article introduces the project and includes a description of the database and the framework of the applied methodology. CONCLUSION: The PHEWE project offers the opportunity to investigate the relationship between temperature and mortality in 16 European cities, representing a wide range of climatic, socio-demographic and cultural characteristics; the use of a standardized methodology allows for direct comparison between cities.

Impact of gender on event rates at 1†year in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation: contemporary perspective from the GARFIELD-AF registry.

OBJECTIVES: Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) explored the impact of gender, risk factors and anticoagulant (AC) treatment on 1-year outcomes in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). DESIGN: GARFIELD-AF is a prospective non-interventional registry. SETTING: Investigator sites (n=1048) are representative of the care settings/locations in each of the 35 countries. PARTICIPANTS: Patients ≥18yrs with newly diagnosed (≤6 weeks' duration) NVAF and ≥1 investigator-determined stroke risk factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Event rates per 100 person-years were estimated from the Poisson model and HRs and 95% CIs calculated. RESULTS: Of 28 624 patients (women 44.4%; men 55.6%) enrolled, there were more elderly (≥75 years) women (46.9%) than men (30.4%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years (95% CI) for women and men were 4.48 (4.12 to 4.87) and 4.04 (3.74 to 4.38), respectively, stroke/systemic embolism (SE) (1.62 (1.41 to 1.87) and 1.17 (1.01 to 1.36)) and major bleeding (0.93 (0.78 to 1.13) and 0.79 (0.66 to 0.95)). After adjustment for baseline risk factors in treated and untreated patients, HRs (95% CI) for women (relative to men) for stroke/SE rates were 1.3-fold higher in women (HR 1.30 (1.04 to 1.63)), and similar for major bleeding (1.13 (0.85 to 1.50)) and all-cause mortality (1.05 (0.92 to 1.19)). Antithrombotic treatment patterns in men and women were almost identical. 63.8% women and 62.9% men received AC± antiplatelets. Relative to no AC treatment, the reduction in stroke/SE rates with AC treatment was greater (p=0.01) in men (HR 0.45 (0.33 to 0.61)) than women 0.77 (0.57 to 1.03). All-cause mortality reduction with AC treatment was similar (women: 0.65 (0.54 to 0.77); men: 0.57 (0.48 to 0.68)). The risk of major bleeding when treated with AC versus no AC was 2.33 (1.41 to 3.84) in men and 1.86 (1.16 to 2.99) in women (p value=0.53). CONCLUSIONS: Women have a higher risk of stroke/SE and the reduction in stroke/SE events rates with AC treatment is less in women than in men. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01090362.

Evolving antithrombotic treatment patterns for patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation.

OBJECTIVE: We studied evolving antithrombotic therapy patterns in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 additional stroke risk factor between 2010 and 2015. METHODS: 39 670 patients were prospectively enrolled in four sequential cohorts in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF): cohort C1 (2010-2011), n=5500; C2 (2011-2013), n=11 662; C3 (2013-2014), n=11 462; C4 (2014-2015), n=11 046. Baseline characteristics and antithrombotic therapy initiated at diagnosis were analysed by cohort. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics were similar across cohorts. Median CHA2DS2-VASc (cardiac failure, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes, stroke (doubled)-vascular disease, age 65-74 and sex category (female)) score was 3 in all four cohorts. From C1 to C4, the proportion of patients on anticoagulant (AC) therapy increased by almost 15% (C1 57.4%; C4 71.1%). Use of vitamin K antagonist (VKA)±antiplatelet (AP) (C1 53.2%; C4 34.0%) and AP monotherapy (C1 30.2%; C4 16.6%) declined, while use of non-VKA oral ACs (NOACs)±AP increased (C1 4.2%; C4 37.0%). Most CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 patients received AC, and this proportion increased over time, largely driven by NOAC prescribing. NOACs were more frequently prescribed than VKAs in men, the elderly, patients of Asian ethnicity, those with dementia, or those using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and current smokers. VKA use was more common in patients with cardiac, vascular, or renal comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: Since NOACs were introduced, there has been an increase in newly diagnosed patients with AF at risk of stroke receiving guideline-recommended therapy, predominantly driven by increased use of NOACs and reduced use of VKA±AP or AP alone. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01090362; Pre-results.

Temperature and summer mortality: geographical and temporal variations in four Italian cities.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To investigate geographical and temporal variations in the temperature-mortality relation. DESIGN: The relation between mortality and maximum apparent temperature (Tappmax) in 2003, 2004, and a previous reference period was explored by using segmented regression and generalised additive models. SETTING: Four Italian cities (Bologna, Milano, Roma, and Torino), included in a national network of prevention programmes and heat health watch warning systems (HHWWS) were considered. PARTICIPANTS: Daily mortality counts of the resident population dying in each city during summer (June to September). MAIN RESULTS: The impact of Tappmax on mortality differed between cities and varied in the three periods analysed. The geographical heterogeneity of the J shaped relation was seen in the reference period with Tappmax thresholds ranging from 28 degrees C in Torino to 32 degrees C in Milano and Roma. In all cities, the percentage variation in mortality was greatest in 2003. In Torino and Roma a significant increase was seen also at lower Tappmax values that are usually not associated to an increase in mortality (26-28 degrees C). In summer 2004 the exposure levels were similar to the reference period; only in Torino the effect of Tappmax on mortality remained relevant even if reduced compared with 2003, while in Bologna no statistically significant effect was seen for any temperature range. CONCLUSIONS: The observed heterogeneous reduction in the impact of temperature on mortality from 2003 to 2004 may be partly explained by the lower levels of exposure. Changes in the ability of individuals and communities to adjust to high temperatures as a consequence of the implementation of public health interventions, based on HHWWS, characterised by a diverse effectiveness, may also have played an important part.