Comparison of the Prevalence of Cardiometabolic Disorders and Comorbidities in Korea and the United States: Analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

BACKGROUND: Comparison of the prevalence of cardiometabolic disorders (CMDs) and comorbidities in Korea and the United States (US) can be an important indicator for forecasting future risk of cardiovascular events in Korea. This study aimed to estimate and compare the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), dyslipidemia, obesity, and metabolic syndrome (MetS) in Korea and the US. METHODS: A total of 15,872 individuals from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003-2014 and 26,492 from the Korea NHANES (KNHANES) 2007-2014 were included. Additionally, 164,339 (139,345 from the Health Examinees-Gem Study and 24,994 from the Cardiovascular Disease Association Study) participants enrolled in the Korea Genome and Epidemiology Study were included to investigate the differences of CMDs between urban and rural regions. To estimate the age-standardized prevalence of CMDs in individuals aged 40-69 years, direct standardization using the World Health Organization standard population was performed. RESULTS: The prevalence of CMDs was lower in Korea than the US (hypertension 49.9% vs. 56.8%; DM 13.4% vs. 14.3%; hypercholesterolemia 16.8% vs. 17.8%; obesity 36.2% vs. 38.6%; and MetS 29.4% vs. 36.5%). According to the median survey years, dyslipidemia has become more prevalent in Korea than in the US since 2010. The prevalence of CMDs was greater in rural than that in urban areas in Korea. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of dyslipidemia in Korea exceeded that of the US after 2010, which was associated with increasing burden of cardiovascular events. The present study suggests that further preventive strategies are needed to mitigate the prevalence of CMDs in Korea.

Obesity measures at baseline, their trajectories over time, and the incidence of chronic kidney disease: A 14 year cohort study among Korean adults.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We investigated the association of baseline obesity measures, i.e. body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), and waist-hip ratio (WHR), and their trajectories over time with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Utilizing data from 2001 to 2014 for 9796 Korean adults without CKD at baseline, the association of baseline obesity measures with incident CKD was evaluated using logistic regression. Further, among 5605 subjects with repeated measures, the effect of the trajectories in obesity measures on CKD incidence was investigated via Cox regression. Baseline obesity in terms of BMI, WC, and HC increased the odds of incident CKD (odds ratio (OR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.33; OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.07-1.38; and OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.11-1.41, respectively), while baseline WHR did not show such an association. A "became non-obese" BMI, WC, or WHR trajectory, and a "constantly not large" HC trajectory decreased the hazard of incident CKD (hazard ratio (HR) 0.70, 95% CI 0.50-0.99; HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.92; HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.35-0.85; and HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69-0.95, respectively) when compared with a "constantly obese or became obese" trajectory. CONCLUSION: Both baseline obesity and obesity trajectories over time were associated with CKD incidence. BMI and WC were equally good measures of CKD risk, while WHR was not. Separately examining WC and HC components of WHR (= WC/HC) may explain WHR's inconsistency, and WHR's usefulness as a measure of CKD risk should be reevaluated.

Body mass index and risk of breast cancer molecular subtypes in Korean women: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Our main objective of this research was to analyze the effect of BMI on breast cancer risk according to various subtypes of breast cancer stratified with menopausal status. METHODS: By using a case-control study setting, we recruited a total of 16,190 female breast cancer patients aged between 35 and 80 years from 2003 to 2010. These breast cancer patients were then individually matched by age to control female group (1:2 ratios of cases and controls). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated via multivariable logistic regression by setting normal BMI range (18.5-22.9) as the reference group. RESULTS: In premenopausal women, the risk of breast cancer of triple-negative subtype increased (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.27-2.02) in obese II (BMI ≥ 30) women and in underweight women, it was Luminal A (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.45) and HER2 express subtype (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.26-1.62) that showed increased risk of breast cancer. In postmenopausal women, Luminal A (OR 2.35, 95% CI 2.01-2.75), Luminal B HER2 negative (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.46-2.25) and triple-negative subtype (OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.85-2.72) showed higher risk of breast cancer in obese II women. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the effect of BMI on breast cancer differs according to various subtypes and hormone receptors and to menopausal status.

Isoflavone intake on the risk of overall breast cancer and molecular subtypes in women at high risk for hereditary breast cancer.

PURPOSE: We investigated the association between isoflavone (ISF) intake and hereditary breast cancer (BC) risk, particularly by molecular subtype, in East-Asian BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers at a high risk of hereditary breast cancer (i.e., family history of BC (FHBC) and early-onset BC [EOBC, age < 40 years]). METHODS: The association between ISF intake and BC risk by molecular subtypes was assessed in 1709 participants (407 BRCA1/2 carriers, 585 FHBC non-carriers, 586 EOBC non-carriers, and 131 unaffected non-carriers) from the Korean Hereditary Breast Cancer Study using hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in weighted Cox regression models. Daily ISF intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. We evaluated gene-environment interactions between BRCA1/2 mutation and ISF intake in 1604 BC cases by calculating the case-only odds ratios (CORs) and 95% CIs in logistic regression models. RESULTS: ISF intake was inversely associated with luminal A BC risk in BRCA2 mutation carriers and FHBC non-carriers (HR = 0.14, 95% CI = 0.04-0.50 for high intake [ISF intake ≥ 15.50 mg/day]; HR = 0.27, 95% CI = 0.11-0.69 for high intake, respectively). We observed a reduced risk of triple negative BC (TNBC) in BRCA1 carriers and FHBC non-carriers (HR = 0.09, 95% CI = 0.02-0.40 for high intake; HR = 0.19, 95% CI = 0.05-0.69 for high intake, respectively). In the case-only design, an interaction between BRCA1 mutation carrier status and ISF intake emerged in TNBC patients (COR = 0.39, 95% CI = 0.16-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that ISF intake is inversely associated with BC risk in women at high risk of hereditary BC and that the effect could differ by molecular subtypes.

A Model to Predict 1-Month Risk of Transplant or Death in Hepatitis A-Related Acute Liver Failure.

Acute liver failure (ALF) caused by hepatitis A is a rare but fatal disease. Here, we developed a model to predict outcome in patients with ALF caused by hepatitis A. The derivation set consisted of 294 patients diagnosed with hepatitis A-related ALF (ALFA) from Korea, and a validation set of 56 patients from Japan, India, and United Kingdom. Using a multivariate proportional hazard model, a risk-prediction model (ALFA score) consisting of age, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, ammonia, creatinine, and hemoglobin levels acquired on the day of ALF diagnosis was developed. The ALFA score showed the highest discrimination in the prediction of liver transplant or death at 1 month (c-statistic, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.92) versus King's College criteria (KCC; c-statistic, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.53-0.59), U.S. Acute Liver Failure Study Group index specific for hepatitis A virus (HAV-ALFSG; c-statistic, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.76), the new ALFSG index (c-statistic, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.74-0.84), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD; c-statistic, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.74-0.84), and MELD including sodium (MELD-Na; c-statistic, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84) in the derivation set (all P < 0.01). In the validation set, the performance of the ALFA score (c-statistic, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74-0.94) was significantly better than that of KCC (c-statistic, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52-0.79), MELD (c-statistic, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.61-0.87), and MELD-Na (c-statistic, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.58-0.85) (all P < 0.05), and better, but not statistically significant, than that of the HAV-ALFSG (c-statistic, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.61-0.90; P = 0.28) and new ALFSG indices (c-statistic, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.65-0.93; P = 0.41). The model was well-calibrated in both sets. Conclusion: Our disease-specific score provides refined prediction of outcome in patients with ALF caused by hepatitis A.

Breast cancer risk for Korean women with germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2.

The average age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance) of breast cancer has been studied for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers living in Western countries, but not for those living in East Asian countries where the population breast cancer incidence is lower. From 2007 to 2011, the Korean Hereditary Breast Cancer study identified 151 BRCA1 and 225 BRCA2 mutation-carrying families from family cancer clinics. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) for female carriers relative to the population, and hence the penetrance, using a modified segregation analysis of cancer family histories conditioned on ascertainment. The breast cancer HR estimates [95 % confidence interval (CI)] for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers were 18 (3-103) and 11 (5-27), respectively. The breast cancer penetrance estimates (95 % CI) to age 70 years were 49 % (11-98) and 35 % (16-65) for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, respectively. The breast cancer HR and penetrance estimates were similar for Korean and Western women (all P > 0.4). The point estimates of breast cancer penetrance were similar to age 50 years, though less for Korean carriers at older ages. Breast cancer risk for Korean and Western mutation carriers might reflect underlying population risks which in turn likely reflect differences in environmental and lifestyle factors. This raises the possibility of identifying modifiers of cancer risk for carriers with implications for prevention.

Metformin intervention in obese non-diabetic patients with breast cancer: phase II randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

Previous observational studies have suggested that metformin in diabetes patients may reduce breast cancer risk more than the reductions from other anti-diabetes medications. This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was performed to evaluate the efficacy of metformin for controlling physical and metabolic profiles related to prognosis and adverse events in non-diabetic breast cancer patients. Female breast cancer patients (N = 105), at least 6 months post-mastectomy, with obesity (≥25 kg/m(2)) and/or pre-diabetes (fasting blood sugar levels ≥100 mg/dL), were randomly assigned to three groups (placebo, metformin 500 mg, and metformin 1000 mg) stratified by tamoxifen use. A linear mixed model for repeated measurements among three groups and ANOVA for profile differences during 6 months of treatment were used for the intention-to-treat analysis. The metformin 1000 mg group had a significantly greater decline in glucose and HbA1c levels between treatment weeks 0 and 6 month (p = 0.008 and 0.009, respectively), and the declines increased with an increase in body mass index (BMI) level (p interaction with BMI = 0.007 and 0.067, respectively). A marginally significant different effect from the metformin 1000 mg treatment was detected for glucose and HbA1c levels (p interaction = 0.084 and 0.063, respectively) in the intention-to-treat analysis. Metformin 1000 mg treatment had a favorable effect on controlling glucose and HbA1C levels in obese non-diabetic breast cancer patients, indicating prognostic importance. Further trials are needed to elucidate the risk-benefit ratio of long-term use of metformin.

Individualized Biological Age as a Predictor of Disease: Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES) Cohort.

Chronological age (CA) predicts health status but its impact on health varies with anthropometry, socioeconomic status (SES), and lifestyle behaviors. Biological age (BA) is, therefore, considered a more precise predictor of health status. We aimed to develop a BA prediction model from self-assessed risk factors and validate it as an indicator for predicting the risk of chronic disease. A total of 101,980 healthy participants from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study were included in this study. BA was computed based on body measurements, SES, lifestyle behaviors, and presence of comorbidities using elastic net regression analysis. The effects of BA on diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension (HT), combination of DM and HT, and chronic kidney disease were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression. A younger BA was associated with a lower risk of DM (HR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.55-0.72), hypertension (HR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.68-0.81), and combination of DM and HT (HR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.47-0.91). The largest risk of disease was seen in those with a BA higher than their CA. A consistent association was also observed within the 5-year follow-up. BA, therefore, is an effective tool for detecting high-risk groups and preventing further risk of chronic diseases through individual and population-level interventions.

Diagnostic value of α-synuclein seeding amplification assays in α-synucleinopathies: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Alpha-synuclein(αSyn) aggregates are definite pathological hallmarks of α-synucleinopathies. Seeding amplification assays (SAAs) have been developed to detect trace amounts of αSyn oligomers in vivo.. Herein, we assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the αSyn-SAAs across biospecimens, diagnostic references, methods, and subtypes. METHODS: A systematic literature search yielded 36 eligible studies for a meta-analysis of the sensitivity and specificity of αSyn-SAAs in patients with α-synucleinopathies(n = 2722) and controls(n = 2278). Pooled sensitivities and specificities with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using bivariate random-effects models and a meta-regression analysis was performed. RESULTS: The summary sensitivity and specificity of αSyn-SAAs positivity for the diagnosis of α-synucleinopathies were 0.88(95% CIs = 0.84-0.91) and 0.95(0.93-0.97), respectively. Two covariates (biospecimen and diagnostic reference) were significant in fitting the meta-regression model (likelihood-ratio test for sensitivity and specificity, p < 0.01, p = 0.01, respectively). Skin αSyn-SAAs exhibited the highest sensitivity 0.92(0.87-0.95), which was not different from that of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)(0.90(0.86-0.93), p = 0.39). Olfactory mucosa αSyn-SAAs exhibited a lower sensitivity 0.64(0.49-0.76) than those of the other two specimens(p = 0.02, 0.01, compared to CSF and skin, respectively). Application of pathological diagnostic standards were associated with a higher specificity of αSyn-SAAs compared to clinical diagnosis (p < 0.01). The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of CSF αSyn-SAAs were 0.91(0.87-0.94) and 0.96(0.93-0.98) for Lewy body disease, 0.90(0.79-0.95) and 0.96(0.90-0.98) for prodromal α-synucleinopathies, and 0.63(0.24-0.90) and 0.97(0.93-0.99) for multiple system atrophy. CONCLUSIONS: αSyn-SAAs are promising in vivo detectors of abnormal αSyn aggregates and may aid the early diagnosis of α-synucleinopathies.

Causal Inference between Rheumatoid Arthritis and Breast Cancer in East Asian and European Population: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization.

Previous studies have been reported that the association between rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and breast cancer remains inconclusive. A two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis can reveal the potential causal association between exposure and outcome. A two-sample MR analysis using the penalized robust inverse variance weighted (PRIVW) method was performed to analyze the association between RA and breast cancer risk based on the summary statistics of six genome-wide association studies (GWAS) targeting RA in an East Asian population along with summary statistics of the BioBank Japan (BBJ), Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC), and Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2 (CIMBA) targeting breast cancer. We found that the direction of the effect of RA on breast cancer varied among GWAS-summary data from BBJ, BCAC, and CIMBA. Significant horizontal pleiotropy based on a penalized robust MR-Egger regression was observed only for BBJ and CIMBA BRCA2 carriers. As the results of the two-sample MR analyses were inconsistent, the causal association between RA and breast cancer was inconclusive. The biological mechanisms explaining the relationship between RA and breast cancer were unclear in Asian as well as in Caucasians. Further studies using large-scale patient cohorts are required for the validation of these results.

Pickled Vegetable and Salted Fish Intake and the Risk of Gastric Cancer: Two Prospective Cohort Studies and a Meta-Analysis.

An increased risk of gastric cancer for pickled vegetable and salted fish intake has been suggested, yet the lack of a dose-response association warrants a quantitative analysis. We conducted a meta-analysis, combining results from our analysis of two large Korean cohort studies and those from previous prospective cohort studies. We investigated the association of pickled vegetable and salted fish intake with gastric cancer in the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study and the Korean Multi-center Cancer Cohort Study using Cox proportional hazard models. We then searched for observational studies published until November 2019 and conducted both dose-response and categorical meta-analyses. The pooled relative risk (RR) of gastric cancer incidence was 1.15 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.07-1.23) for 40 g/day increment in pickled vegetable intake in a dose-response manner (P for nonlinearity = 0.11). As for salted fish intake, the pooled risk of gastric cancer incidence was 1.17 (95% CI, 0.99-1.38) times higher, comparing the highest to the lowest intake. Our findings supported the evidence that high intake of pickled vegetable and salted fish is associated with elevated risk of gastric cancer incidence.

Induction of systemic immunity through nasal-associated lymphoid tissue (NALT) of mice intranasally immunized with Brucella abortus malate dehydrogenase-loaded chitosan nanoparticles.

Infection with Brucella abortus causes contagious zoonosis, brucellosis, and leads to abortion in animals and chronic illness in humans. Chitosan nanoparticles (CNs), biocompatible and nontoxic polymers, acts as a mucosal adjuvant. In our previous study, B. abortus malate dehydrogenase (Mdh) was loaded in CNs, and it induced high production of pro-inflammatory cytokines in THP-1 cells and systemic IgA in BALB/C mice. In this study, the time-series gene expression analysis of nasal-associated lymphoid tissue (NALT) was performed to identify the mechanism by which Mdh affect the target site of nasal immunization. We showed that intranasal immunization of CNs-Mdh reduced cell viability of epithelial cells and muscle cells at first 1 h, then induced cellular movement of immune cells such as granulocytes, neutrophils and lymphocytes at 6h, and activated IL-6 signaling pathway at 12h within NALT. These activation of immune cells also promoted signaling pathway for high-mobility group box 1 protein (HMGB1), followed by the maturation of DCs required for mucosal immunity. The CNs also triggered the response to other organism and inflammatory response, showing it is immune-enhancing adjuvant. The ELISA showed that significant production of specific IgA was detected in the fecal excretions and genital secretions from the CNs-Mdh-immunized group after 2 weeks-post immunization. Collectively, these results suggest that B. abortus Mdh-loaded CNs triggers activation of HMGB1, IL-6 and DCs maturation signaling within NALT and induce production of systemic IgG and IgA.

Association between Body Mass Index and Gastric Cancer Risk According to Effect Modification by Helicobacter pylori Infection.

PURPOSE: Few studies investigated roles of body mass index (BMI) on gastric cancer (GC) risk according to Helicobacter pylori infection status. This study was conducted to evaluate associations between BMI and GC risk with consideration of H. pylori infection information. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a case-cohort study (n=2,458) that consists of a subcohort, (n=2,193 including 67 GC incident cases) randomly selected from the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and 265 incident GC cases outside of the subcohort. H. pylori infection was assessed using an immunoblot assay. GC risk according to BMI was evaluated by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) using weighted Cox hazard regression model. RESULTS: Increased GC risk in lower BMI group (< 23 kg/m2) with marginal significance, (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.77) compared to the reference group (BMI of 23-24.9 kg/m2) was observed. In the H. pylori non-infection, both lower (< 23 kg/m2) and higher BMI (≥ 25 kg/m2) showed non-significantly increased GC risk (HR, 10.82; 95% CI, 1.25 to 93.60 and HR, 11.33; 95% CI, 1.13 to 113.66, respectively). However, these U-shaped associations between BMI and GC risk were not observed in the group who had ever been infected by H. pylori. CONCLUSION: This study suggests the U-shaped associations between BMI and GC risk, especially in subjects who had never been infected by H. pylori.

Effectiveness of Gastric Cancer Screening on Gastric Cancer Incidence and Mortality in a Community-Based Prospective Cohort.

PURPOSE: This study was performed to investigate the effectiveness of gastric cancer (GC) screening methods in a community-based prospective cohort of the Korean Multi-center Cancer Cohort (KMCC) with over a 10-year follow-up. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total 10,909 and 4,773 subjects from the KMCC with information on gastroendoscopy (GE) and upper gastrointestinal series (UGIS) were included in this study. Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for age, sex, Helicobacter pylori infection, cigarette smoking, and alcohol drinking was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The GE screened subjects had almost half the risk of GC-specific death than that of unscreened subjects (HR, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.94). Among the GC patients, GE screenees had a 2.24-fold higher survival rate than that of the non-screenees (95% CI, 1.61 to 3.11). In particular, GE screenees who underwent two or more screening episodes had a higher survival rate than that of the non-screenees (HR, 13.11; 95% CI, 7.38 to 23.30). The effectiveness of GE screening on reduced GC mortality and increased survival rate of GC patients was better in elderly subjects (≥ 65 years old) (HR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.24 to 0.95 and HR, 8.84; 95% CI, 3.63 to 21.57, respectively) than that in younger subjects (< 65 years old) (HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.34 to 1.29 and HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.68, respectively). In contrast, UGIS screening had no significant relation to GC mortality and survival. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest that a decreased GC-specific mortality and improved survival rate in GC patients can be achieved through GE screening.

Associations of urinary sodium levels with overweight and central obesity in a population with a sodium intake.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported an association between dietary sodium intake and overweight/central obesity. However, dietary survey methods were prone to underestimate sodium intake. Therefore, this study investigated the associations of calculated 24-h urinary sodium excretion, an index of dietary sodium intake, with various obesity parameters including body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in a population with a relatively high sodium intake. METHODS: A total of 16,250 adults (aged ≥19 years) and 1476 adolescents (aged 10-18 years), with available information on spot urine sodium levels and anthropometric measurements from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES) were included in this study. We calculated 24-h urine sodium excretion levels from spot urine sodium levels using the Tanaka formula. RESULTS: In adults, those with high sodium excretion levels (≥ 3200 mg) showed increased odds of overweight and central obesity compared to those with low urinary sodium excretion level (< 2200 mg) (odds ratio [OR] = 2.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.90-2.49 for overweight; OR = 2.50, 95% CI = 2.13-2.94 for central obesity). These associations were also observed in adolescents (OR = 5.80, 95% CI = 3.17-10.60 for overweight; OR = 4.19, 95% CI = 1.78-9.89 for central obesity). CONCLUSIONS: The present study suggests that reducing salt intake might be important for preventing overweight and central obesity, especially in adolescents. However, because the present study was conducted with cross-sectional study design, further longitudinal studies are warranted to confirm the causal relationship between urinary sodium excretion and overweight/central obesity.

Predictors of all-cause mortality among 514,866 participants from the Korean National Health Screening Cohort.

BACKGROUND: There is not enough evidence regarding how information obtained from general health check-ups can predict individual mortality based on long-term follow-ups and large sample sizes. This study evaluated the applicability of various health information and measurements, consisting of self-reported data, anthropometric measurements and laboratory test results, in predicting individual mortality. METHODS: The National Health Screening Cohort included 514,866 participants (aged 40-79 years) who were randomly selected from the overall database of the national health screening program in 2002-2003. Death was determined from causes of death statistics provided by Statistics Korea. We assessed variables that were collected at baseline and repeatedly measured for two consecutive years using traditional and time-variant Cox proportional hazards models in addition to random forest and boosting algorithms to identify predictors of 10-year all-cause mortality. Participants' age at enrollment, lifestyle factors, anthropometric measurements and laboratory test results were included in the prediction models. We used c-statistics to assess the discriminatory ability of the models, their external validity and the ratio of expected to observed numbers to evaluate model calibration. Eligibility of Medicaid and household income levels were used as inequality indexes. RESULTS: After the follow-up by 2013, 38,031 deaths were identified. The risk score based on the selected health information and measurements achieved a higher discriminatory ability for mortality prediction (c-statistics = 0.832, 0.841, 0.893, and 0.712 for Cox model, time-variant Cox model, random forest and boosting, respectively) than that of the previous studies. The results were externally validated using the community-based cohort data (c-statistics = 0.814). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals' health information and measurements based on health screening can provide early indicators of their 10-year death risk, which can be useful for health monitoring and related policy decisions.

Reproductive factors as risk modifiers of breast cancer in BRCA mutation carriers and high-risk non-carriers.

This study was conducted to identify the role of reproductive factors as environmental modifiers for breast cancer (BC) risk in clinic-based, East-Asian BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers and non-carriers with high-risk criteria of BRCA mutations (family history (FH) of BC, early-onset BC (aged ≤40 years)). A total of 581 women who were BRCA carriers (222 BRCA1 and 359 BRCA2), 1,083 non-carriers with FH, and 886 non-carriers with early-onset BC were enrolled and interviewed to examine the reproductive factors, from 2007 to 2014. The hazard ratio (HR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) in the weighted Cox regression model were used to calculate the BC risk based on the reproductive factors. Earlier menarche increased BC risk by 3.49-fold in BRCA2 mutation carriers (95%CI=2.03-6.00) and 3.30-fold in non-carriers with FH (95%CI=1.73-6.34), but was insignificantly associated with BRCA1 carriers and non-carriers for early-onset BC (P-heterogeneity=0.047). Higher parity decreased BC risk in BRCA carriers and non-carriers with FH, especially in BRCA1 carriers (HR=0.27, 95% CI=0.09-0.83 for two parity; and HR=0.23, 95%CI=0.05-1.00 for ≥3 parity), but increased the early-onset BC risk (HR=4.63, 95%CI=2.56-8.51 for >3 parity, p-heterogeneity=0.045). Oral contraceptive (OC) use and longer estrogen exposure periods (≥30 years) were associated with an increased risk of early-onset BC (HR=3.99, 95%CI=1.65-9.67; HR=7.69, 95%CI=1.96-25.01), while OC use was not associated with BC risk in other groups and longer estrogen exposure had rather decreased risk for BC risk (both p-heterogeneity<0.001). Several reproductive factors as risk modifiers could heterogeneously be associated with BC among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, non-carriers with FH, and early-onset BC non-carriers.

The Effect of Breastfeeding Duration and Parity on the Risk of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarize current evidence regarding the association of parity and duration of breastfeeding with the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). METHODS: A systematic search of relevant studies published by December 31, 2015 was performed in PubMed and EMBASE. A random-effect model was used to obtain the summary relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: Thirty-two studies had parity categories of 1, 2, and ≥3. The summary RRs for EOC were 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.79), 0.57 (95% CI, 0.49 to 0.65), and 0.46 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.52), respectively. Small to moderate heterogeneity was observed for one birth (p<0.01; Q=59.46; I2=47.9%). Fifteen studies had breastfeeding categories of <6 months, 6-12 months, and >13 months. The summary RRs were 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.87), 0.72 (95% CI, 0.64 to 0.81), and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.56 to 0.79), respectively. Only small heterogeneity was observed for <6 months of breastfeeding (p=0.17; Q=18.79, I2=25.5%). Compared to nulliparous women with no history of breastfeeding, the joint effects of two births and <6 months of breastfeeding resulted in a 0.5-fold reduced risk for EOC. CONCLUSIONS: The first birth and breastfeeding for <6 months were associated with significant reductions in EOC risk.

Attribution to Heterogeneous Risk Factors for Breast Cancer Subtypes Based on Hormone Receptor and Human Epidermal Growth Factor 2 Receptor Expression in Korea.

We conducted a heterogeneous risk assessment of breast cancer based on the hormone receptor (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) calculating the risks and population-based attributable fractions (PAFs) for modifiable and nonmodifiable factors.Using matched case-control study design from the Seoul Breast Cancer Study and the national prevalence of exposure, the risks and PAFs for modifiable and nonmodifiable factors were estimated for total breast cancers and subtypes.The attribution to modifiable factors was different for each subtype (luminal A, PAF = 61.4% [95% confidence interval, CI = 54.3%-69.8%]; luminal B, 21.4% [95% CI = 18.6-24.9%]; HER2-overexpression, 59.4% [95% CI = 47.8%-74.3%], and triple negative tumors [TNs], 27.1% [95% CI = 22.9%-32.4%)], and the attribution to the modifiable factors for the luminal A and HER2-overexpression subtypes was higher than that of the luminal B and TN subtypes (P heterogeneity  ≤  0.001). The contribution of modifiable reproductive factors to luminal A type in premenopausal women was higher than that of the other subtypes (18.2% for luminal A; 3.1%, 8.1%, and -3.1% for luminal B, HER2-overexpression, and TN subtypes, respectively; P heterogeneity  ≤  0.001). Physical activity had the highest impact preventing 32.6% of luminal A, 14.5% of luminal B, 38.0% of HER2-overexpression, and 26.9% of TN subtypes (P heterogeneity = 0.014). Total reproductive factors were also heterogeneously attributed to each breast cancer subtype (luminal A, 65.4%; luminal B, 24.1%; HER2-overexpression, 57.9%, and TN subtypes, -3.1%; P heterogeneity  ≤  0.001).Each pathological subtype of breast cancer by HRs and HER2 status may be associated with heterogeneous risk factors and their attributable risk, suggesting a different etiology. The luminal B and TN subtypes seemed to be less preventable despite intervention for alleged risk factors, even though physical activity had a high preventable potential against breast cancer.