Stochastic EM algorithm for partially observed stochastic epidemics with individual heterogeneity.

We develop a stochastic epidemic model progressing over dynamic networks, where infection rates are heterogeneous and may vary with individual-level covariates. The joint dynamics are modeled as a continuous-time Markov chain such that disease transmission is constrained by the contact network structure, and network evolution is in turn influenced by individual disease statuses. To accommodate partial epidemic observations commonly seen in real-world data, we propose a stochastic EM algorithm for inference, introducing key innovations that include efficient conditional samplers for imputing missing infection and recovery times which respect the dynamic contact network. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our inference method can accurately and efficiently recover model parameters and provide valuable insight at the presence of unobserved disease episodes in epidemic data.

Peripheral immune function and Alzheimer's disease: a living systematic review and critical appraisal.

BACKGROUND: A growing body of literature examines the relationship between peripheral immune function and Alzheimer's Disease (AD) in human populations. Our living systematic review summarizes the characteristics and findings of these studies, appraises their quality, and formulates recommendations for future research. METHODS: We searched the electronic databases PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science, and reviewed references of previous reviews and meta-analyses to identify human studies examining the relationship between any peripheral immune biomarkers and AD up to September 7th, 2023. We examined patterns of reported statistical associations (positive, negative, and null) between each biomarker and AD across studies. Evidence for each biomarker was categorized into four groups based on the proportion of studies reporting different associations: corroborating a positive association with AD, a negative association, a null association, and presenting contradictory findings. A modified Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS) was employed to assess the quality of the included studies. FINDINGS: In total, 286 studies were included in this review. The majority were cross-sectional (n = 245, 85.7%) and hospital-based (n = 248, 86.7%), examining relationships between 187 different peripheral immune biomarkers and AD. Cytokines were the most frequently studied group of peripheral immune biomarkers. Evidence supported a positive association with AD for six biomarkers, including IL-6, IL-1ß, IFN-γ, ACT, IL-18, and IL-12, and a negative association for two biomarkers, including lymphocytes and IL-6R. Only a small proportion of included studies (n = 22, 7.7%) were deemed to be of high quality based on quality assessment. INTERPRETATION: Existing research on peripheral immune function and AD exhibits substantial methodological variations and limitations, with a notable lack of longitudinal, population-based studies investigating a broad range of biomarkers with prospective AD outcomes. The extent and manner in which peripheral immune function can contribute to AD pathophysiology remain open questions. Given the biomarkers that we identified to be associated with AD, we posit that targeting peripheral immune dysregulation may present a promising intervention point to reduce the burden of AD.

Life-course trajectories of body mass index from adolescence to old age: Racial and educational disparities.

No research exists on how body mass index (BMI) changes with age over the full life span and social disparities therein. This study aims to fill the gap using an innovative life-course research design and analytic methods to model BMI trajectories from early adolescence to old age across 20th-century birth cohorts and test sociodemographic variation in such trajectories. We conducted the pooled integrative data analysis (IDA) to combine data from four national population-based NIH longitudinal cohort studies that collectively cover multiple stages of the life course (Add Health, MIDUS, ACL, and HRS) and estimate mixed-effects models of age trajectories of BMI for men and women. We examined associations of BMI trajectories with birth cohort, race/ethnicity, parental education, and adult educational attainment. We found higher mean levels of and larger increases in BMI with age across more recent birth cohorts as compared with earlier-born cohorts. Black and Hispanic excesses in BMI compared with Whites were present early in life and persisted at all ages, and, in the case of Black-White disparities, were of larger magnitude for more recent cohorts. Higher parental and adulthood educational attainment were associated with lower levels of BMI at all ages. Women with college-educated parents also experienced less cohort increase in mean BMI. Both race and education disparities in BMI trajectories were larger for women compared with men.

Lifestyle and incident dementia: A COSMIC individual participant data meta­analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The LIfestyle for BRAin Health (LIBRA) index yields a dementia risk score based on modifiable lifestyle factors and is validated in Western samples. We investigated whether the association between LIBRA scores and incident dementia is moderated by geographical location or sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: We combined data from 21 prospective cohorts across six continents (N = 31,680) and conducted cohort-specific Cox proportional hazard regression analyses in a two-step individual participant data meta-analysis. RESULTS: A one-standard-deviation increase in LIBRA score was associated with a 21% higher risk for dementia. The association was stronger for Asian cohorts compared to European cohorts, and for individuals aged ≤75 years (vs older), though only within the first 5 years of follow-up. No interactions with sex, education, or socioeconomic position were observed. DISCUSSION: Modifiable risk and protective factors appear relevant for dementia risk reduction across diverse geographical and sociodemographic groups. HIGHLIGHTS: A two-step individual participant data meta-analysis was conducted. This was done at a global scale using data from 21 ethno-regionally diverse cohorts. The association between a modifiable dementia risk score and dementia was examined. The association was modified by geographical region and age at baseline. Yet, modifiable dementia risk and protective factors appear relevant in all investigated groups and regions.

Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Central North Carolina: Accounting for Outcome Misclassification in Complex Sample Designs.

BACKGROUND: Population-based seroprevalence studies are crucial to understand community transmission of COVID-19 and guide responses to the pandemic. Seroprevalence is typically measured from diagnostic tests with imperfect sensitivity and specificity. Failing to account for measurement error can lead to biased estimates of seroprevalence. Methods to adjust seroprevalence estimates for the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test have largely focused on estimation in the context of convenience sampling. Many existing methods are inappropriate when data are collected using a complex sample design. METHODS: We present methods for seroprevalence point estimation and confidence interval construction that account for imperfect test performance for use with complex sample data. We apply these methods to data from the Chatham County COVID-19 Cohort (C4), a longitudinal seroprevalence study conducted in central North Carolina. Using simulations, we evaluate bias and confidence interval coverage for the proposed estimator compared with a standard estimator under a stratified, three-stage cluster sample design. RESULTS: We obtained estimates of seroprevalence and corresponding confidence intervals for the C4 study. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased rapidly from 10.4% in January to 95.6% in July 2021 in Chatham County, North Carolina. In simulation, the proposed estimator demonstrates desirable confidence interval coverage and minimal bias under a wide range of scenarios. CONCLUSION: We propose a straightforward method for producing valid estimates and confidence intervals when data are based on a complex sample design. The method can be applied to estimate the prevalence of other infections when estimates of test sensitivity and specificity are available.

Socioeconomic and race/ethnic differences in immunosenescence: Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the urgent need to understand variation in immunosenescence at the population-level. Thus far, population patterns of immunosenescence have not well described. METHODS: We characterized measures of immunosenescence from the 2016 Venous Blood Study from the nationally representative U.S Health and Retirement Study (HRS) of individuals ages 50 years and older. RESULTS: Median values of the CD8+:CD4+, EMRA:Naïve CD4+ and EMRA:Naïve CD8+ ratios were higher among older participants and were lower in those with additional educational attainment. Generally, minoritized race and ethnic groups had immune markers suggestive of a more aged immune profile: Hispanics had a CD8+:CD4+ median value of 0.37 (95 % CI: 0.35, 0.39) compared to 0.30 in non-Hispanic Whites (95 % CI: 0.29, 0.31). Non-Hispanic Blacks had the highest median value of the EMRA:Naïve CD4+ ratio (0.08; 95 % CI: 0.07, 0.09) compared to non-Hispanic Whites (0.03; 95 % CI: 0.028, 0.033). In regression analyses, race/ethnicity and education were associated with large differences in the immune ratio measures after adjustment for age and sex. CONCLUSIONS: Lower educational attainment and minoritized racial ethnic status were associated with higher levels of immunosenescence. This population variation may have important implications for both risk of age-related disease and vulnerability to emerging pathogens (e.g., SARS-CoV-2).

Rare copy number variation in posttraumatic stress disorder.

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a heritable (h2 = 24-71%) psychiatric illness. Copy number variation (CNV) is a form of rare genetic variation that has been implicated in the etiology of psychiatric disorders, but no large-scale investigation of CNV in PTSD has been performed. We present an association study of CNV burden and PTSD symptoms in a sample of 114,383 participants (13,036 cases and 101,347 controls) of European ancestry. CNVs were called using two calling algorithms and intersected to a consensus set. Quality control was performed to remove strong outlier samples. CNVs were examined for association with PTSD within each cohort using linear or logistic regression analysis adjusted for population structure and CNV quality metrics, then inverse variance weighted meta-analyzed across cohorts. We examined the genome-wide total span of CNVs, enrichment of CNVs within specified gene-sets, and CNVs overlapping individual genes and implicated neurodevelopmental regions. The total distance covered by deletions crossing over known neurodevelopmental CNV regions was significant (beta = 0.029, SE = 0.005, P = 6.3 × 10-8). The genome-wide neurodevelopmental CNV burden identified explains 0.034% of the variation in PTSD symptoms. The 15q11.2 BP1-BP2 microdeletion region was significantly associated with PTSD (beta = 0.0206, SE = 0.0056, P = 0.0002). No individual significant genes interrupted by CNV were identified. 22 gene pathways related to the function of the nervous system and brain were significant in pathway analysis (FDR q < 0.05), but these associations were not significant once NDD regions were removed. A larger sample size, better detection methods, and annotated resources of CNV are needed to explore this relationship further.

Assessing intervention effects in a randomized trial within a social network.

Studies of social networks provide unique opportunities to assess the causal effects of interventions that may impact more of the population than just those intervened on directly. Such effects are sometimes called peer or spillover effects, and may exist in the presence of interference, that is, when one individual's treatment affects another individual's outcome. Randomization-based inference (RI) methods provide a theoretical basis for causal inference in randomized studies, even in the presence of interference. In this article, we consider RI of the intervention effect in the eX-FLU trial, a randomized study designed to assess the effect of a social distancing intervention on influenza-like-illness transmission in a connected network of college students. The approach considered enables inference about the effect of the social distancing intervention on the per-contact probability of influenza-like-illness transmission in the observed network. The methods allow for interference between connected individuals and for heterogeneous treatment effects. The proposed methods are evaluated empirically via simulation studies, and then applied to data from the eX-FLU trial.

Identifying and estimating effects of sustained interventions under parallel trends assumptions.

Many research questions in public health and medicine concern sustained interventions in populations defined by substantive priorities. Existing methods to answer such questions typically require a measured covariate set sufficient to control confounding, which can be questionable in observational studies. Differences-in-differences rely instead on the parallel trends assumption, allowing for some types of time-invariant unmeasured confounding. However, most existing difference-in-differences implementations are limited to point treatments in restricted subpopulations. We derive identification results for population effects of sustained treatments under parallel trends assumptions. In particular, in settings where all individuals begin follow-up with exposure status consistent with the treatment plan of interest but may deviate at later times, a version of Robins' g-formula identifies the intervention-specific mean under stable unit treatment value assumption, positivity, and parallel trends. We develop consistent asymptotically normal estimators based on inverse-probability weighting, outcome regression, and a double robust estimator based on targeted maximum likelihood. Simulation studies confirm theoretical results and support the use of the proposed estimators at realistic sample sizes. As an example, the methods are used to estimate the effect of a hypothetical federal stay-at-home order on all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020 in the United States.

Patterns and Life Course Determinants of Black-White Disparities in Biological Age Acceleration: A Decomposition Analysis.

Despite the prominence of the weathering hypothesis as a mechanism underlying racialized inequities in morbidity and mortality, the life course social and economic determinants of Black-White disparities in biological aging remain inadequately understood. This study uses data from the Health and Retirement Study (n = 6,782), multivariable regression, and Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to assess Black-White disparities across three measures of biological aging: PhenoAge, Klemera-Doubal biological age, and homeostatic dysregulation. It also examines the contributions of racial differences in life course socioeconomic and stress exposures and vulnerability to those exposures to Black-White disparities in biological aging. Across the outcomes, Black individuals exhibited accelerated biological aging relative to White individuals. Decomposition analyses showed that racial differences in life course socioeconomic exposures accounted for roughly 27% to 55% of the racial disparities across the biological aging measures, and racial disparities in psychosocial stress exposure explained 7% to 11%. We found less evidence that heterogeneity in the associations between social exposures and biological aging by race contributed substantially to Black-White disparities in biological aging. Our findings offer new evidence of the role of life course social exposures in generating disparities in biological aging, with implications for understanding age patterns of morbidity and mortality risks.

Resistance in Enterobacterales Is Higher Among People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant Enterobacterales (MDR-E) are important pathogens. People living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV; PLWH) may be at greater risk for MDR-E infection given relatively high antibiotic exposure and burden of comorbidities. METHODS: We analyzed data from 36 521 patients in a healthcare system in North Carolina who had a clinical culture with growth of an Enterobacterales species from 2000 to 2018; 440 were PLWH. We used generalized linear models to estimate prevalence ratios and differences, contrasting PLWH and people not living with HIV (PNLWH) for resistance to individual antibiotic classes, as well as MDR-E. We assessed trends in prevalence over time by calculating the 5-year moving average and fitting restricted cubic spline models. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of MDR-E was higher among PLWH (21.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 18.2%-25.1%) vs PNLWH (16.5%; 95% CI, 16.2%-16.9%), with an adjusted prevalence ratio of 1.38 (95% CI, 1.14-1.65). PLWH had higher rates of antimicrobial resistance than PNLWH for all antibiotic classes analyzed, including penicillins, penicillin/beta lactamase inhibitor combinations, and sulfonamides. MDR-E prevalence was 3 to 10 percentage points higher among PLWH than PNLWH throughout the study period based on the 5-year moving average. CONCLUSIONS: In a large clinical study population in the southeastern United States from 2000 to 2018, the prevalence of antibacterial resistance among Enterobacterales was consistently higher among PLWH than PNLWH. These data highlight the importance of identifying and mitigating the factors that contribute to antimicrobial resistance in PLWH, given the potential clinical consequences of these resistant pathogens.

Targeted maximum likelihood estimation of causal effects with interference: A simulation study.

Interference, the dependency of an individual's potential outcome on the exposure of other individuals, is a common occurrence in medicine and public health. Recently, targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) has been extended to settings of interference, including in the context of estimation of the mean of an outcome under a specified distribution of exposure, referred to as a policy. This paper summarizes how TMLE for independent data is extended to general interference (network-TMLE). An extensive simulation study is presented of network-TMLE, consisting of four data generating mechanisms (unit-treatment effect only, spillover effects only, unit-treatment and spillover effects, infection transmission) in networks of varying structures. Simulations show that network-TMLE performs well across scenarios with interference, but issues manifest when policies are not well-supported by the observed data, potentially leading to poor confidence interval coverage. Guidance for practical application, freely available software, and areas of future work are provided.

Assortativity and Bias in Epidemiologic Studies of Contagious Outcomes: A Simulated Example in the Context of Vaccination.

Assortativity is the tendency of individuals connected in a network to share traits and behaviors. Through simulations, we demonstrated the potential for bias resulting from assortativity by vaccination, where vaccinated individuals are more likely to be connected with other vaccinated individuals. We simulated outbreaks of a hypothetical infectious disease and vaccine in a randomly generated network and a contact network of university students living on campus. We varied protection of the vaccine to the individual, transmission potential of vaccinated-but-infected individuals, and assortativity by vaccination. We compared a traditional approach, which ignores the structural features of a network, with simple approaches which summarized information from the network. The traditional approach resulted in biased estimates of the unit-treatment effect when there was assortativity by vaccination. Several different approaches that included summary measures from the network reduced bias and improved confidence interval coverage. Through simulations, we showed the pitfalls of ignoring assortativity by vaccination. While our example is described in terms of vaccines, our results apply more widely to exposures for contagious outcomes. Assortativity should be considered when evaluating exposures for contagious outcomes.

Association Between Immune Response to Cytomegalovirus and Cognition in the Health and Retirement Study.

Chronic infections and the subsequent immune response have recently been shown to be risk factors for cognitive decline and Alzheimer disease and related dementias (ADRD). While some studies have shown an association between cytomegalovirus (CMV), a chronic and highly prevalent infection, and cognition and/or ADRD, these studies have been limited by nonrepresentative and small samples. Using 2016 data on 5,617 adults aged 65 years or more from the Health and Retirement Study, we investigated the cross-sectional associations of both CMV serostatus and immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody response with cognitive function using linear regression models adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment. We further investigated potential effect-measure modification by educational attainment. Overall, both CMV seropositivity and higher IgG antibody response were associated with lower cognitive function, though the relationship was not statistically significant in adjusted models. Among participants with less than a high school diploma, CMV seropositivity and being in the first tertile of IgG response, relative to seronegative persons, were associated with lower scores on the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (-0.56 points (95% confidence interval: -1.63, 0.52) and -0.89 points (95% confidence interval: -2.07, 0.29), respectively), and the relationship was attenuated among those with higher education. Our results suggest that CMV may be a risk factor for cognitive impairment, particularly among persons with fewer educational resources.

At-home testing to mitigate community transmission of SARS-CoV-2: protocol for a public health intervention with a nested prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to evolve as a global health crisis. Although highly effective vaccines have been developed, non-pharmaceutical interventions remain critical to controlling disease transmission. One such intervention-rapid, at-home antigen self-testing-can ease the burden associated with facility-based testing programs and improve testing access in high-risk communities. However, its impact on SARS-CoV-2 community transmission has yet to be definitively evaluated, and the socio-behavioral aspects of testing in underserved populations remain unknown. METHODS: As part of the Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics-Underserved Populations (RADx-UP) program funded by the National Institutes of Health, we are implementing a public health intervention titled "Say Yes! COVID Test" (SYCT) involving at-home self-testing using a SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen assay in North Carolina (Greenville, Pitt County) and Tennessee (Chattanooga City, Hamilton County). The intervention is supported by a multifaceted communication and community engagement strategy to ensure widespread awareness and uptake, particularly in marginalized communities. Participants receive test kits either through online orders or via local community distribution partners. To assess the impact of this intervention on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we will conduct a non-randomized, ecological study using community-level outcomes. Specifically, we will evaluate trends in SARS-CoV-2 cases and hospitalizations, SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater, and population mobility in each community before, during, and after the SYCT intervention. Individuals who choose to participate in SYCT will also have the option to enroll in an embedded prospective cohort substudy gathering participant-level data to evaluate behavioral determinants of at-home self-testing and socio-behavioral mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. DISCUSSION: This is the first large-scale, public health intervention implementing rapid, at-home SARS-CoV-2 self-testing in the United States. The program consists of a novel combination of an at-home testing program, a broad communications and community engagement strategy, an ecological study to assess impact, and a research substudy of the behavioral aspects of testing. The findings from the SYCT project will provide insights into innovative methods to mitigate viral transmission, advance the science of public health communications and community engagement, and evaluate emerging, novel assessments of community transmission of disease.

Demographic and sociocultural risk factors for adulthood weight gain in Hispanic/Latinos: results from the Hispanic Community Health Study / Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL).

BACKGROUND: United States (US) Hispanic/Latinos experience a disproportionate burden of obesity, which may in part be related to demographic or sociocultural factors, including acculturation to an US diet or inactive lifestyle. Therefore, we sought to describe the association between adulthood weight histories and demographic and sociocultural factors in a large diverse community-based cohort of US Hispanic/Latinos. METHODS: We estimated the effect of several factors on weight gain across adulthood, using multivariable linear mixed models to leverage 38,759 self-reported current body weights and weight histories recalled for 21, 45 and 65 years of age, from 15,203 adults at least 21 years of age at the baseline visit of the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (2008-2011). RESULTS: The average rate of weight gain was nearly 10 kg per decade in early adulthood, but slowed to < 5 kg a decade among individuals 60+ years of age. Birth cohort, gender, nativity or age at immigration, Hispanic/Latino background, and study site each significantly modified the form of the predicted adulthood weight trajectory. Among immigrants, weight gain during the 5 years post-migration was on average 0.88 kg (95% CI: 0.04, 1.72) greater than the weight gain during the 5 years prior. The rate of weight gain appeared to slow after 15 years post-migration. CONCLUSIONS: Using self-reported and weight history data in a diverse sample of US Hispanic/Latinos, we revealed that both demographic and sociocultural factors were associated with the patterning of adulthood weight gain in this sample. Given the steep rate of weight gain in this population and the fact that many Hispanic/Latinos living in the US immigrated as adults, efforts to promote weight maintenance across the life course, including after immigration, should be a top priority for promoting Hispanic/Latino health and addressing US health disparities more broadly.

Adolescent and Adult Correlates of Prescription Opioid Use and Misuse in Adulthood: Associations Across Domains of Despair.

Objective: Given continued increases in "deaths of despair", there is a need to examine associations of factors across multiple domains of despair (i.e. cognitive, emotional, behavioral, biological) with opioid-related behaviors. An understanding of current and early life correlates of prescription opioid behaviors can help inform clinical care, public health interventions, and future life course research. Methods: Using data from Waves I (1994-1995; participants ages 12-18 years) and V (2016-2018; participants ages 34-42 years) of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (N = 10,685), we examined adolescent and adult demographic, mental and physical health, substance use, and behavioral characteristics associated with past 30-day prescription opioid use only, misuse only, and both use and misuse to no recent use or misuse in adulthood. Results: Overall, 2.3% of adult participants reported past 30-day prescription opioid use only, 6.3% reported past 30-day misuse only, and 1.3% reported both prescribed use and misuse in the past 30 days. Physical health conditions in adolescence and adulthood were most common among those reporting use only and both use and misuse. Mental health conditions, other substance use, and delinquent behaviors in adolescence and adulthood were most common among those reporting misuse only and both use and misuse. Conclusions: Results from this nationally representative sample highlight the prevalence of specific prescription opioid behaviors and underscore the importance of targeting underlying drivers of prescription opioid use and misuse early in the life course. Continued implementation individual- and population-level approaches will be critical to addressing continued demand for opioids.

Characterizing Differences in Thymic Function in Women With and Without Vulvodynia: A Community-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to evaluate the association between vulvodynia and thymic function. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this case-control study of 200 clinically confirmed cases of vulvodynia and 205 general population controls residing in the Minneapolis/Saint Paul metropolitan area, we used DNA extracted from whole blood to measure levels of signal joint T-cell receptor excision circles (sjTRECs), a measure of thymic output. We used logistic regression to evaluate the association between vulvodynia and thymic function. RESULTS: In 405 participants (aged 18-40 years), we observed an association between decreasing thymic function and increasing age. Women with vulvodynia had a steeper decline in sjTREC values across age categories compared with women without vulvodynia. In addition, at younger ages, women with vulvodynia had higher sjTREC values compared with women without vulvodynia. In older women, those with vulvodynia had lower sjTREC than those without vulvodynia. When accounting for recency of vulvar pain onset, women with a shorter time since pain onset had higher thymic function compared with women with a longer time since vulvar pain onset. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that at younger ages, women with vulvodynia have higher thymic output and a more precipitous decline of thymic function than those without vulvodynia. It also seems that a strong immune inflammatory response is present proximate to the onset of vulvar pain and may wane subsequently over time.

Estimation Without Representation: Early Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Seroprevalence Studies and the Path Forward.

The recent development and regulatory approval of a variety of serological assays indicating the presence of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has led to rapid and widespread implementation of seroprevalence studies. Accurate estimates of seroprevalence are needed to model transmission dynamics and estimate mortality rates. Furthermore, seroprevalence levels in a population help guide policy surrounding reopening efforts. The literature to date has focused heavily on issues surrounding the quality of seroprevalence tests and less on the sampling methods that ultimately drive the representativeness of resulting estimates. Seroprevalence studies based on convenience samples are being reported widely and extrapolated to larger populations for the estimation of total coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, comparisons of prevalence across geographic regions, and estimation of mortality rates. In this viewpoint, we discuss the pitfalls that can arise with the use of convenience samples and offer guidance for moving towards more representative and timely population estimates of COVID-19 seroprevalence.

Longitudinal Associations of US Acculturation With Cognitive Performance, Cognitive Impairment, and Dementia.

US Latinos, a growing, aging population, are disproportionately burdened by cognitive decline and dementia. Identification of modifiable risk factors is needed for interventions aimed at reducing risk. Broad sociocultural context may illuminate complex etiology among culturally diverse Latinos. Among 1,418 older (≥60 years), low-socioeconomic position (SEP) Latinos (predominantly of Mexican descent) in Sacramento, California, we examined whether US acculturation was associated with cognitive performance, cognitive decline, and dementia/ cognitive impairment without dementia over a 10-year period and whether education modified the associations (Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging, 1998-2008). Analyses used linear mixed models, competing-risk regression, and inverse probability of censoring weights for attrition. Participants with high US acculturation had better cognitive performance (0.21 fewer cognitive errors at grand-mean-centered age 70 years) than those with low acculturation after adjustment for sociodemographic factors, practice effects, and survey language. Results may have been driven by cultural language use rather than identity factors (e.g., ethnic identity, interactions). Rate of cognitive decline and risk of dementia/cognitive impairment without dementia did not differ by acculturation, regardless of education (ß = 0.00 (standard error, 0.00) and hazard ratio = 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.49, 1.35), respectively). High US acculturation was associated with better cognitive performance among these older, low-SEP Latinos. Acculturation may benefit cognition when SEP is low. Future studies should incorporate extended longitudinal assessments among more diverse groups.