District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach.

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Tropical Data: Approach and Methodology as Applied to Trachoma Prevalence Surveys.

PURPOSE: Population-based prevalence surveys are essential for decision-making on interventions to achieve trachoma elimination as a public health problem. This paper outlines the methodologies of Tropical Data, which supports work to undertake those surveys. METHODS: Tropical Data is a consortium of partners that supports health ministries worldwide to conduct globally standardised prevalence surveys that conform to World Health Organization recommendations. Founding principles are health ministry ownership, partnership and collaboration, and quality assurance and quality control at every step of the survey process. Support covers survey planning, survey design, training, electronic data collection and fieldwork, and data management, analysis and dissemination. Methods are adapted to meet local context and needs. Customisations, operational research and integration of other diseases into routine trachoma surveys have also been supported. RESULTS: Between 29th February 2016 and 24th April 2023, 3373 trachoma surveys across 50 countries have been supported, resulting in 10,818,502 people being examined for trachoma. CONCLUSION: This health ministry-led, standardised approach, with support from the start to the end of the survey process, has helped all trachoma elimination stakeholders to know where interventions are needed, where interventions can be stopped, and when elimination as a public health problem has been achieved. Flexibility to meet specific country contexts, adaptation to changes in global guidance and adjustments in response to user feedback have facilitated innovation in evidence-based methodologies, and supported health ministries to strive for global disease control targets.

Global progress toward the elimination of active trachoma: an analysis of 38 countries.

BACKGROUND: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem was targeted for 2020. We reviewed progress towards the elimination of active trachoma by country and geographical group. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of national survey and implementation data, all countries ever known to be endemic for trachoma that had either implemented at least one trachoma impact survey shown in the publicly available Trachoma Atlas, or are in Africa were invited to participate in this study. Scale-up was described according to the number of known endemic implementation units and mass drug administration implementation over time. The prevalence of active trachoma-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) from baseline, impact, and surveillance surveys was categorised and used to show programme progress towards reaching the elimination threshold (TF1-9 <5%) using dot maps, spaghetti plots, and boxplots. FINDINGS: We included data until Nov 10, 2021, for 38 countries, representing 2097 ever-endemic implementation units. Of these, 1923 (91·7%) have had mass drug administration. Of 1731 implementation units with a trachoma impact survey, the prevalence of TF1-9 had reduced by at least 50% in 1465 (84·6%) implementation units and 1182 (56·4%) of 2097 ever-endemic implementation units had reached the elimination threshold. 2 years after reaching a TF1-9 prevalence below 5%, most implementation units sustained this target; however, 58 (56·3%) of 103 implementation units in Ethiopia showed recrudescence. INTERPRETATION: Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2020 was not possible, but this finding masks the great progress achieved. Implementation units in high baseline categories and recrudescent TF1-9 might prolong the attainment of elimination of active trachoma. Elimination is delayed but, with an understanding of the patterns and timelines to reaching elimination targets and a commitment toward meeting future targets, global elimination can still be achieved by 2030. FUNDING: None.

The global burden of trichiasis in 2016.

BACKGROUND: Trichiasis is present when one or more eyelashes touches the eye. Uncorrected, it can cause blindness. Accurate estimates of numbers affected, and their geographical distribution, help guide resource allocation. METHODS: We obtained district-level trichiasis prevalence estimates in adults for 44 endemic and previously-endemic countries. We used (1) the most recent data for a district, if more than one estimate was available; (2) age- and sex-standardized corrections of historic estimates, where raw data were available; (3) historic estimates adjusted using a mean adjustment factor for districts where raw data were unavailable; and (4) expert assessment of available data for districts for which no prevalence estimates were available. FINDINGS: Internally age- and sex-standardized data represented 1,355 districts and contributed 662 thousand cases (95% confidence interval [CI] 324 thousand-1.1 million) to the global total. Age- and sex-standardized district-level prevalence estimates differed from raw estimates by a mean factor of 0.45 (range 0.03-2.28). Previously non- stratified estimates for 398 districts, adjusted by ×0.45, contributed a further 411 thousand cases (95% CI 283-557 thousand). Eight countries retained previous estimates, contributing 848 thousand cases (95% CI 225 thousand-1.7 million). New expert assessments in 14 countries contributed 862 thousand cases (95% CI 228 thousand-1.7 million). The global trichiasis burden in 2016 was 2.8 million cases (95% CI 1.1-5.2 million). INTERPRETATION: The 2016 estimate is lower than previous estimates, probably due to more and better data; scale-up of trichiasis management services; and reductions in incidence due to lower active trachoma prevalence.

Progress Towards Elimination of Trachoma as a Public Health Problem in Eritrea: Results of a Systematic Review and Nine Population-based Prevalence Surveys Conducted in 2014.

PURPOSE: To assess Eritrea's progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem, we reviewed and compiled current knowledge on the distribution and burden of trachoma in Eritrea, then undertook further population-based surveys where indicated, with support from the Global Trachoma Mapping Project (GTMP). METHODS: For the systematic review, undertaken in March 2014, we searched (1) PubMed, using the terms ((blind* or trachoma or trichiasis) AND Eritrea); (2) the online database of rapid assessments of avoidable blindness; (3) our own grey literature collections; and (4) the Global Atlas of Trachoma database. In June and July 2014, we conducted nine population-based prevalence surveys, for each of which 30 villages were systematically selected with probability proportional to population size; in each village, 30 households were systematically selected. All consenting residents of selected households aged ≥1 year were examined by GTMP-certified graders for signs of trachoma. Data on household-level access to water and sanitation were also collected. RESULTS: One previous rapid assessment of avoidable blindness, three peer-reviewed publications, and two grey literature reports detailing sets of trachoma prevalence surveys conducted in 2006 and 2011, respectively, were located. Post-intervention impact surveys were needed in seven evaluation units (EUs, framed at sub-Zoba-level: population range 40,000-120,000) of Debub and Northern Red Sea, while baseline surveys were needed in two EUs of Anseba. Four of the seven impact survey EUs and both baseline survey EUs returned trachomatous inflammation-follicular prevalences in 1-9-year-olds of ≥5%; six of the seven impact survey EUs and one of the two baseline survey EUs returned trichiasis prevalences in ≥15-year-olds of ≥0.2%. The prevalence of access to water and sanitation varied widely between EUs. CONCLUSION: Interventions are still required in Eritrea to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. Data from these surveys will guide the Ministry of Health to undertake programme planning using a sound evidence base.

Prevalence of trachoma in Yemen: results of population-based prevalence surveys of 42 evaluation units in nine governorates.

PURPOSE: In suspected trachoma-endemic areas of Yemen, we sought to determine the prevalence of the sign trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years, and the potential individual and household risk factors for TF in that age group. We also sought to determine the prevalence of trichiasis in adults aged ≥15 years. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-sampled survey in each of 42 evaluation units (EUs) comprising 166 rural districts of nine Governorates (Adh Dhale'a, Al Hodeihah, Al Jawf, Hadramoot, Hajjah, Ibb, Lahj, Ma'rib, Taiz) using the Global Trachoma Mapping Project systems and methodologies. Fieldwork was undertaken from September 2013 to March 2015. Risk factors for TF in children aged 1-9 years were evaluated using multilevel random effects logistic regression. RESULTS: The TF prevalence in children aged 1-9 years was ≥10% in two EUs (7 districts) and 5-9.9% in six EUs (24 districts). In adults aged ≥15 years, trichiasis prevalence was ≥0.2% in five EUs (19 districts). Being older (within the 1-9-year age bracket), being male, living in a household with higher numbers of children, and living in a household that reported the use of open defecation, were each independently associated with higher odds of TF. CONCLUSIONS: These surveys provided baseline data to enable planning for trachoma elimination. The World Health Organization Alliance for the Global Elimination of Trachoma by 2020 stands ready to assist Yemen once security considerations permit further surveys and implementation of control activities.

Prevalence of Trachoma in 47 Administrative Districts of Zambia: Results of 32 Population-Based Prevalence Surveys.

PURPOSE: A number of previous administrative-district-level baseline trachoma prevalence estimates in Zambia required verification. We used methodologies and systems for trachoma surveys considered to represent international best practice in order to generate reliable estimates of the prevalence of trachoma. METHODS: Between March 2016 and July 2017, we undertook 32 population-based prevalence surveys covering 47 administrative districts. In each of the 32 evaluation units (EUs), we selected 31 households in each of 24 clusters. In selected households, trained, certified graders examined all residents aged 1 year and above for evidence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trichiasis. In eyes that had trichiasis, the presence or absence of trachomatous scarring (TS) was recorded, and the subject was asked about previous trichiasis management recommendations from health workers. RESULTS: Five EUs (encompassing seven administrative districts) had prevalence estimates of trichiasis+TS unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds of ≥0.2%, and require public-health-level implementation of trichiasis surgery services. Eleven EUs (encompassing 16 administrative districts) had TF prevalence estimates in 1-9-year-olds of ≥5%. Intervention with the A, F and E components of the SAFE strategy for trachoma elimination is required for nearly 1.5 million people. CONCLUSION: Trachoma is a public health problem in some parts of Zambia. The Ministry of Health will continue to partner with other stakeholders to implement the multi-sectoral SAFE strategy. Consideration should be given to re-surveying other suspected-endemic administrative districts in which surveys using older methodologies returned TF prevalence estimates ≥5%.

Sanitation and water supply coverage thresholds associated with active trachoma: Modeling cross-sectional data from 13 countries.

BACKGROUND: Facial cleanliness and sanitation are postulated to reduce trachoma transmission, but there are no previous data on community-level herd protection thresholds. We characterize associations between active trachoma, access to improved sanitation facilities, and access to improved water sources for the purpose of face washing, with the aim of estimating community-level or herd protection thresholds. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used cluster-sampled Global Trachoma Mapping Project data on 884,850 children aged 1-9 years from 354,990 households in 13 countries. We employed multivariable mixed-effects modified Poisson regression models to assess the relationships between water and sanitation coverage and trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF). We observed lower TF prevalence among those with household-level access to improved sanitation (prevalence ratio, PR = 0.87; 95%CI: 0.83-0.91), and household-level access to an improved washing water source in the residence/yard (PR = 0.81; 95%CI: 0.75-0.88). Controlling for household-level water and latrine access, we found evidence of community-level protection against TF for children living in communities with high sanitation coverage (PR80-90% = 0.87; 95%CI: 0.73-1.02; PR90-100% = 0.76; 95%CI: 0.67-0.85). Community sanitation coverage levels greater than 80% were associated with herd protection against TF (PR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.62-0.97)-that is, lower TF in individuals whose households lacked individual sanitation but who lived in communities with high sanitation coverage. For community-level water coverage, there was no apparent threshold, although we observed lower TF among several of the higher deciles of community-level water coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides insights into the community water and sanitation coverage levels that might be required to best control trachoma. Our results suggest access to adequate water and sanitation can be important components in working towards the 2020 target of eliminating trachoma as a public health problem.

Prevalence of trachoma in four marakez of Elmenia and Bani Suef Governorates, Egypt.

PURPOSE: In 2015, to determine where interventions are needed to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem from Egypt, we initiated population-based prevalence surveys using the Global Trachoma Mapping Project platform in four suspected-endemic marakez (districts; singular: markaz) of the governorates of Elmenia and Bani Suef. METHODS: In each markaz, 30 households were selected in each of 25 villages. Certified graders examined a total of 3682 children aged 1-9 years in 2993 households, noting the presence or absence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) and trachomatous inflammation-intense (TI) in each eye. A total of 5582 adults aged ≥15 years living in the same households were examined for trachomatous trichiasis (TT). Household-level access to water and sanitation was recorded. RESULTS: Three of four marakez had age-adjusted TF prevalence estimates in 1-9-year olds of >10%; the other markaz had a TF prevalence estimate of 5-9.9%. Estimates of the age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of unmanaged TT in adults ranged from 0.7% to 2.3%. Household-level access to water and sanitation was high. (We did not, however, measure use of water or sanitation facilities.) Conclusions: Each of the four marakez surveyed has trachoma as a public health problem, with a need for implementation of the SAFE (surgery, antibiotics, facial cleanliness, environmental improvement) strategy. Further mapping is also required to determine the need for interventions in other areas of Egypt.

Traumatic subconjunctival crystalline lens. Dislocation by the tail of a cow.

Traumatic subconjunctival crystalline lens is a rare phenomena; we report a case of ocular trauma by the tail of a cow. A 60-year-old female presented with history of trauma to her left eye by the tail of a cow, she had severe headache, redness and pain in her left eye. She was admitted and the crystalline lens was found in the subconjunctival space and was removed surgically.