The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak. METHODS: Data was extracted from the World Bank's website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05). RESULTS: The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.

Antibiotic resistance profile of Gram-negative bacteria isolated from Lafenwa abattoir effluent and its receiving water (Ogun River) in Abeokuta, Ogun state, Nigeria.

Untreated abattoir effluent constitutes potential reservoir for transmission of pathogenic strains of multiple antibiotic-resistant bacteria by pollution of surface and ground water sources. This study was carried out to determine the antibiotic resistance and extended spectrum ß-lactamase (ESBL) production profiles of Gram-negative bacteria isolated from effluent collected from Lafenwa municipal abattoir and its receiving surface water, Ogun River, in Abeokuta, Ogun state, Nigeria. Twelve effluent and 18 water samples were collected for this study. Total heterotrophic and coliform counts were estimated, bacterial identification was performed using standard culture-based procedures, whilst antibiotic resistance profiles of isolated bacteria against five antibiotics (ceftazidime, cefpodoxime, cefotaxime, ertapenem and amoxicillin-clavulanate) and detection of ESBLs were done using disk diffusion and double-disc synergy tests. A total of 54 Gram-negative bacteria were isolated, including Salmonella spp. (9), Escherichia coli (15), Klebsiella spp. (7), Shigella spp. (5), Pseudomonas spp. (12) and Enterobacter spp. (6). Both Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas isolates (31% and 66.6%, respectively) were resistant to all selected antibiotics except ertapenem (98% susceptibility). Overall, 77% isolates had multiple antibiotic resistance index (MARI) values, but none of the antibiotic-resistant isolates showed evidence of ESBL production. The presence of multiple antibiotic-resistant isolates in the effluent and receiving water of Lafenwa abattoir suggests a major risk to public health and food safety. Current methods of waste disposal at the abattoir are unacceptable and greatly reduce the qualities of the processed meat and contaminate the environment. There is a need for improved abattoir waste management and water treatment strategies.