Anthropogenic disturbance exacerbates resilience loss in the Amazon rainforests.

Uncovering the mechanisms that lead to Amazon forest resilience variations is crucial to predict the impact of future climatic and anthropogenic disturbances. Here, we apply a previously used empirical resilience metrics, lag-1 month temporal autocorrelation (TAC), to vegetation optical depth data in C-band (a good proxy of the whole canopy water content) in order to explore how forest resilience variations are impacted by human disturbances and environmental drivers in the Brazilian Amazon. We found that human disturbances significantly increase the risk of critical transitions, and that the median TAC value is ~2.4 times higher in human-disturbed forests than that in intact forests, suggesting a much lower resilience in disturbed forests. Additionally, human-disturbed forests are less resilient to land surface heat stress and atmospheric water stress than intact forests. Among human-disturbed forests, forests with a more closed and thicker canopy structure, which is linked to a higher forest cover and a lower disturbance fraction, are comparably more resilient. These results further emphasize the urgent need to limit deforestation and degradation through policy intervention to maintain the resilience of the Amazon rainforests.

Declining Amazon biomass due to deforestation and subsequent degradation losses exceeding gains.

In the Amazon, deforestation and climate change lead to increased vulnerability to forest degradation, threatening its existing carbon stocks and its capacity as a carbon sink. We use satellite L-Band Vegetation Optical Depth (L-VOD) data that provide an integrated (top-down) estimate of biomass carbon to track changes over 2011-2019. Because the spatial resolution of L-VOD is coarse (0.25°), it allows limited attribution of the observed changes. We therefore combined high-resolution annual maps of forest cover and disturbances with biomass maps to model carbon losses (bottom-up) from deforestation and degradation, and gains from regrowing secondary forests. We show an increase of deforestation and associated degradation losses since 2012 which greatly outweigh secondary forest gains. Degradation accounted for 40% of gross losses. After an increase in 2011, old-growth forests show a net loss of above-ground carbon between 2012 and 2019. The sum of component carbon fluxes in our model is consistent with the total biomass change from L-VOD of 1.3 Pg C over 2012-2019. Across nine Amazon countries, we found that while Brazil contains the majority of biomass stocks (64%), its losses from disturbances were disproportionately high (79% of gross losses). Our multi-source analysis provides a pessimistic assessment of the Amazon carbon balance and highlights the urgent need to stop the recent rise of deforestation and degradation, particularly in the Brazilian Amazon.

Global increase in methane production under future warming of lake bottom waters.

Lakes are significant emitters of methane to the atmosphere, and thus are important components of the global methane budget. Methane is typically produced in lake sediments, with the rate of methane production being strongly temperature dependent. Local and regional studies highlight the risk of increasing methane production under future climate change, but a global estimate is not currently available. Here, we project changes in global lake bottom temperatures and sediment methane production rates from 1901 to 2099. By the end of the 21st century, lake bottom temperatures are projected to increase globally, by an average of 0.86-2.60°C under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6-8.5, with greater warming projected at lower latitudes. This future warming of bottom waters will likely result in an increase in methane production rates of 13%-40% by the end of the century, with many low-latitude lakes experiencing an increase of up to 17 times the historical (1970-1999) global average under RCP 8.5. The projected increase in methane production will likely lead to higher emissions from lakes, although the exact magnitude of the emission increase requires more detailed regional studies.

Satellite-derived multivariate world-wide lake physical variable timeseries for climate studies.

A consistent dataset of lake surface water temperature, ice cover, water-leaving reflectance, water level and extent is presented. The collection constitutes the Lakes Essential Climate Variable (ECV) for inland waters. The data span combined satellite observations from 1992 to 2020 inclusive and quantifies over 2000 relatively large lakes, which represent a small fraction of the number of lakes worldwide but a significant fraction of global freshwater surface. Visible and near-infrared optical imagery, thermal imagery and microwave radar data from satellites have been exploited. All observations are provided in a common grid at 1/120° latitude-longitude resolution, jointly in daily files. The data/algorithms have been validated against in situ measurements where possible. Consistency analysis between the variables has guided the development of the joint dataset. It is the most complete collection of consistent satellite observations of the Lakes ECV currently available. Lakes are of significant interest to scientific disciplines such as hydrology, limnology, climatology, biogeochemistry and geodesy. They are a vital resource for freshwater supply, and key sentinels for global environmental change.

Building a small fire database for Sub-Saharan Africa from Sentinel-2 high-resolution images.

Coarse resolution sensors are not very sensitive at detecting small fire patches, making current estimations of global burned areas (BA) very conservative. Using medium or high-resolution sensors to generate BA products becomes then a priority, particularly in areas where fires tend to be small and frequent. Building on previous work that developed a small fire dataset (SFD) for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2016, this paper presents a new version of the dataset for 2019 using the two Sentinel-2 satellites (A and B) and VIIRS active fires. Total estimated BA was 4.8 Mkm2. This value was much higher than estimations from two global, coarser-spatial resolution BA products based on MODIS data for the same area and period: 80 % greater than estimates from FireCCI51 (based on MODIS 250 m bands) and 120 % larger than MCD64A1 (based on MODIS 500 m bands). The main differences were observed in those months with higher fire occurrence (November to January for the Northern Hemisphere regions and June to September for the Southern Hemisphere ones). Accuracy assessment of the SFD product was based on a novel sampling strategy designed to obtain independent fire reference perimeters. Validation results showed remarkable high accuracy values comparing to existing global BA products. Overall omission errors (OE) were estimated as 8.5 %, commission errors (CE) as 15.0 %, with a Dice Coefficient of 87.7 %. All of these estimations implied significant improvements over the global, coarser spatial resolution BA products (OE > 50 % and CE > 20 % for the same area and period), as well as over the previous SFD product for 2016 of the same area, generated from a single Sentinel-2 satellite and MODIS active fires (OE = 26.5 % and CE = 19.3 %). Temporal accuracies greatly increased as well with the new product, with 92.5 % of fires detected within the first 10 days of occurrence.

On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2.

The Global Stocktake (GST), implemented by the Paris Agreement, requires rapid developments in the capabilities to quantify annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals consistently from the global to the national scale and improvements to national GHG inventories. In particular, new capabilities are needed for accurate attribution of sources and sinks and their trends to natural and anthropogenic processes. On the one hand, this is still a major challenge as national GHG inventories follow globally harmonized methodologies based on the guidelines established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but these can be implemented differently for individual countries. Moreover, in many countries the capability to systematically produce detailed and annually updated GHG inventories is still lacking. On the other hand, spatially-explicit datasets quantifying sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions from Earth Observations (EO) are still limited by many sources of uncertainty. While national GHG inventories follow diverse methodologies depending on the availability of activity data in the different countries, the proposed comparison with EO-based estimates can help improve our understanding of the comparability of the estimates published by the different countries. Indeed, EO networks and satellite platforms have seen a massive expansion in the past decade, now covering a wide range of essential climate variables and offering high potential to improve the quantification of global and regional GHG budgets and advance process understanding. Yet, there is no EO data that quantifies greenhouse gas fluxes directly, rather there are observations of variables or proxies that can be transformed into fluxes using models. Here, we report results and lessons from the ESA-CCI RECCAP2 project, whose goal was to engage with National Inventory Agencies to improve understanding about the methods used by each community to estimate sources and sinks of GHGs and to evaluate the potential for satellite and in-situ EO to improve national GHG estimates. Based on this dialogue and recent studies, we discuss the potential of EO approaches to provide estimates of GHG budgets that can be compared with those of national GHG inventories. We outline a roadmap for implementation of an EO carbon-monitoring program that can contribute to the Paris Agreement.

CAROLS: a new airborne L-band radiometer for ocean surface and land observations.

The "Cooperative Airborne Radiometer for Ocean and Land Studies" (CAROLS) L-Band radiometer was designed and built as a copy of the EMIRAD II radiometer constructed by the Technical University of Denmark team. It is a fully polarimetric and direct sampling correlation radiometer. It is installed on board a dedicated French ATR42 research aircraft, in conjunction with other airborne instruments (C-Band scatterometer-STORM, the GOLD-RTR GPS system, the infrared CIMEL radiometer and a visible wavelength camera). Following initial laboratory qualifications, three airborne campaigns involving 21 flights were carried out over South West France, the Valencia site and the Bay of Biscay (Atlantic Ocean) in 2007, 2008 and 2009, in coordination with in situ field campaigns. In order to validate the CAROLS data, various aircraft flight patterns and maneuvers were implemented, including straight horizontal flights, circular flights, wing and nose wags over the ocean. Analysis of the first two campaigns in 2007 and 2008 leads us to improve the CAROLS radiometer regarding isolation between channels and filter bandwidth. After implementation of these improvements, results show that the instrument is conforming to specification and is a useful tool for Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite validation as well as for specific studies on surface soil moisture or ocean salinity.

Upgrading Land-Cover and Vegetation Seasonality in the ECMWF Coupled System: Verification With FLUXNET Sites, METEOSAT Satellite Land Surface Temperatures, and ERA5 Atmospheric Reanalysis.

In this study, we show that limitations in the representation of land cover and vegetation seasonality in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model are partially responsible for large biases (up to ∼10°C, either positive or negative depending on the region) on the simulated daily maximum land surface temperature (LST) with respect to satellite Earth Observations (EOs) products from the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility. The error patterns were coherent in offline land-surface and coupled land-atmosphere simulations, and in ECMWF's latest generation reanalysis (ERA5). Subsequently, we updated the ECMWF model's land cover characterization leveraging on state-of-the-art EOs-the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative land cover data set and the Copernicus Global Land Services leaf area index. Additionally, we tested a clumping parameterization, introducing seasonality to the effective low vegetation coverage. The updates reduced the overall daily maximum LST bias and unbiased root-mean-squared errors. In contrast, the implemented updates had a neutral impact on daily minimum LST. Our results also highlighted the complex regional heterogeneities in the atmospheric sensitivity to land cover and vegetation changes, particularly with issues emerging over eastern Brazil and northeastern Asia. These issues called for a re-calibration of model parameters (e.g., minimum stomatal resistance, roughness length, rooting depth), along with a revision of several model assumptions (e.g., snow shading by high vegetation).